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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Fort William weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Fort William today. Tomorrow: rain, around 9°, with a 100% chance of rain.

10°3°
9°7°
11°6°
14°7°
11°7°
12°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
11°
Rain
Today 11°·Low 2°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
9°
Rain
Today 9°·Low 3°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Showers
Today 10°·Low 4°·Rain 100%
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Fort William weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Highlands & Eilean Siar

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Highlands & Eilean Siar…

Fort William weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Fort William swings 16°C across the year, from 17°C highs in July to 1°C lows in February, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 2406 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 4 days a year at 25°C or above, 40 frost nights, and rain on 231 days.

Warmest month
July
17°C average high
Coldest month
February
1°C average low
Wettest month
January
2406 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
16,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
4 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
40 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
231 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Fort William’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Fort William and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Fort William hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Fort William 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
10° 3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
9° 7°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
11° 6°
±5°
Tue
Rain
14° 7°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12° 9°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
11° 8°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
10° 7°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
9° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
9° 4°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
7° 3°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
7° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
6° 1°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
8° 2°
±4°

Fort William, Scotland is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 1°C), with roughly 2406 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Fort William right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Fort William climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
6°
2°
Feb
6°
1°
Mar
9°
2°
Apr
11°
4°
May
14°
6°
Jun
16°
9°
Jul
17°
11°
Aug
17°
11°
Sep
16°
8°
Oct
11°
6°
Nov
8°
4°
Dec
6°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Fort William's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C

Around Fort William, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2000: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2009: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.4°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2017: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2018: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Frost nights

2 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +35 vs the 30-year average1996: +41 vs the 30-year average1997: −13 vs the 30-year average1998: −8 vs the 30-year average1999: +0 vs the 30-year average2000: −16 vs the 30-year average2001: +19 vs the 30-year average2002: −12 vs the 30-year average2003: −13 vs the 30-year average2004: −25 vs the 30-year average2005: −5 vs the 30-year average2006: −9 vs the 30-year average2007: −23 vs the 30-year average2008: +8 vs the 30-year average2009: −12 vs the 30-year average2010: +52 vs the 30-year average2011: −16 vs the 30-year average2012: +1 vs the 30-year average2013: +22 vs the 30-year average2014: −22 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: +10 vs the 30-year average2017: −2 vs the 30-year average2018: +14 vs the 30-year average2019: +2 vs the 30-year average2020: −12 vs the 30-year average2021: +15 vs the 30-year average2022: −15 vs the 30-year average2023: −6 vs the 30-year average2024: −17 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +2% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: +1% vs the 30-year average1998: +4% vs the 30-year average1999: +4% vs the 30-year average2000: +1% vs the 30-year average2001: −5% vs the 30-year average2002: −1% vs the 30-year average2003: −1% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: +6% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +2% vs the 30-year average2008: +4% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −13% vs the 30-year average2011: +4% vs the 30-year average2012: −5% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: +8% vs the 30-year average2016: −3% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: −3% vs the 30-year average2020: +4% vs the 30-year average2021: −11% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −7% vs the 30-year average2024: +2% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.3°C+35+2%
1996−0.9°C+41+1%
1997+0.3°C−13+1%
1998−0.2°C−8+4%
1999−0.1°C+0+4%
2000±0.0°C−16+1%
2001−0.5°C+19−5%
2002+0.1°C−12−1%
2003+0.4°C−13−1%
2004+0.4°C−25+1%
2005+0.3°C−5+6%
2006+0.4°C−9+1%
2007+0.4°C−23+2%
2008−0.1°C+8+4%
2009±0.0°C−12+1%
2010−1.4°C+52−13%
2011+0.1°C−16+4%
2012−0.5°C+1−5%
2013−0.5°C+22+2%
2014+0.5°C−22−1%
2015−0.5°C+2+8%
2016−0.2°C+10−3%
2017±0.0°C−2+1%
2018−0.1°C+14+1%
2019+0.2°C+2−3%
2020+0.3°C−12+4%
2021+0.2°C+15−11%
2022+0.8°C−15+2%
2023+0.7°C−6−7%
2024+0.6°C−17+2%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Fort William, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Fort William?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C96±1.3 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
92
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C94±1.9 mph9597% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
92
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C93±2.2 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°9° to 11°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°8° to 10°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±5°8° to 13°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Wed±2°10° to 12°±30%67% to 97% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fort William

today, local time
Sunrise
08:12
Sunset
17:55
Daylight
9h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fort William today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Fort William today. Tomorrow: rain, around 9°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Fort William today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Fort William on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (Met Office 100%, European 100%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fort William?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fort William (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Met Office at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fort William?
July is typically the warmest month in Fort William, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Fort William get?
The coldest month in Fort William is February, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Fort William get?
Fort William sees roughly 2406 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
Is Fort William getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Fort William, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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