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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Erskine weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 12° in Erskine today. Tomorrow: rain, around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain.

12°3°
10°7°
15°7°
15°8°
12°8°
12°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
10°
Rain
Feels 6° · Wind 17 mph · Humidity 86%
EuropeanECMWF
9°
Rain
Feels 6° · Wind 15 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Rain
Feels 5° · Wind 19 mph · Humidity 92%

Latest for Erskine: Met Office (UKMO model): 10° Rain · European (ECMWF): 9° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Rain.

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Erskine weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Strathclyde

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Strathclyde…

Erskine weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Erskine swings 16°C across the year, from 17°C highs in June to 1°C lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1589 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 2 days a year at 25°C or above, 47 frost nights, and rain on 197 days.

Warmest month
June
17°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
January
1589 mm a year
Comfortable
3 months
June, July and August
Residents
16,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
2 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
47 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
197 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Erskine’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Erskine and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Erskine hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Erskine 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
12° 3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
10° 7°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
12° 8°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
12° 9°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 8°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
10° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
11° 4°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
7° 2°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7° 1°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
7° 2°
±5°

Erskine, Scotland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1589 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Erskine right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Erskine climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
6°
1°
Feb
6°
1°
Mar
9°
2°
Apr
11°
4°
May
14°
7°
Jun
17°
9°
Jul
17°
11°
Aug
17°
11°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
11°
6°
Nov
8°
3°
Dec
6°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Erskine has changed since 1995

Erskine sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Glasgow. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Glasgow page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Erskine?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
95±0.3°C93±2.1 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
76
/100rank #3
90±0.6°C94±1.8 mph4771% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°11° to 12°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°9° to 11°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±6%94% to 100% chance
Wed±2°11° to 13°±32%68% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Erskine

today, local time
Sunrise
08:07
Sunset
17:55
Daylight
9h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Erskine today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 12° in Erskine today. Tomorrow: rain, around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Erskine today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Erskine on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (Met Office 100%, European 100%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Erskine?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Erskine (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Erskine?
June is typically the warmest month in Erskine, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Erskine get?
The coldest month in Erskine is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Erskine get?
Erskine sees roughly 1589 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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