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CheckWeather UKDunfermline
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Dunfermline weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Dunfermline today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 16°, with a 88% chance of rain.

18°12°
16°11°
14°10°
16°
17°
17°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±2°Fridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Rain
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 12°·Rain 55%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light rain
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain 67%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Dunfermline and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
18° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
16° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
17°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
15°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
16° 11°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
14°
±2°

Dunfermline, Scotland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1193 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Dunfermline right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Dunfermline climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
18°
11°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Dunfermline?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
87
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C97±1.0 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C93±2.3 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 19°±12%55% to 67% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 17°±1%87% to 88% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±3%73% to 76% chance
Wed±1°16° to 17°±2%4% to 6% chance
Thu±2°16° to 18°±20%26% to 46% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dunfermline

today, local time
Sunrise
06:28
Sunset
19:56
Daylight
13h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dunfermline today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Dunfermline today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Dunfermline today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Dunfermline and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dunfermline?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dunfermline (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Met Office at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dunfermline?
June is typically the warmest month in Dunfermline, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Dunfermline get?
The coldest month in Dunfermline is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Dunfermline get?
Dunfermline sees roughly 1193 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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