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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Cowley weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Cowley today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain.

15°7°
12°8°
16°7°
16°9°
15°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
11°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 7° · Wind 17 mph · Humidity 94%
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Light rain
Feels 6° · Wind 20 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Light rain
Feels 5° · Wind 26 mph · Humidity 90%

Latest for Cowley: Met Office (UKMO model): 11° Heavy drizzle · European (ECMWF): 11° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Light rain.

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Cowley weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Cowley weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Cowley swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 664 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 17 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 32 frost nights, and rain on 135 days.

Warmest month
July
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
664 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
17 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
32 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
135 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Cowley’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Cowley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Cowley hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Cowley 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
12° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Fog
13° 8°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 5°
±3°
Tue
Mostly clear
10° 6°
±3°
Wed
Partly cloudy
9° 3°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7° 2°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
9° 2°
±3°

Cowley, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 664 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Cowley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Cowley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
10°
3°
Apr
13°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
20°
10°
Jul
21°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
15°
8°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Cowley has changed since 1995

Cowley sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Reading. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Reading page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Cowley?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C98±0.6 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
92
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C96±1.3 mph8994% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C94±2.0 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°12° to 12°±96%0% to 96% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±19%81% to 100% chance
Tuemodels agree16° to 16°±50%50% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree15° to 15°±27%6% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Cowley

today, local time
Sunrise
07:44
Sunset
17:52
Daylight
10h 8m

Common questions

What's the weather in Cowley today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Cowley today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Cowley today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Cowley on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 0%, European 47%, American 96%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Cowley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Cowley (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Met Office at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Cowley?
July is typically the warmest month in Cowley, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Cowley get?
The coldest month in Cowley is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Cowley get?
Cowley sees roughly 664 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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