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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Colchester weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 24° in Colchester today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 24°, with a 21% chance of rain.

24°14°
24°17°
20°14°
19°11°
20°10°
22°15°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°Fridaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
26°
Cloudy
Today 26°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 12°·Rain 25%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Cloudy
Today 24°·Low 15°·Rain 19%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Colchester and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
24° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
24° 17°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
20° 14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19° 11°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
21° 11°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
24° 16°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
24° 14°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 12°
±3°
Thu
Mostly clear
22° 11°
±7°
Fri
Drizzle
19° 13°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree

Colchester, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 777 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Colchester right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Colchester climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
11°
Apr
13°
May
17°
Jun
21°
11°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
22°
14°
Sep
21°
13°
Oct
16°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Colchester?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C96±1.4 mph100100% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
91
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C89±3.4 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
90
/100rank #3
93±0.4°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°23° to 26°±6%19% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±2°24° to 25°±4%17% to 21% chance
Tue±2°19° to 21°±11%36% to 47% chance
Wed±2°18° to 19°±3%3% to 6% chance
Thu±3°18° to 21°±13%14% to 27% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Colchester

today, local time
Sunrise
06:16
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
13h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Colchester today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Colchester today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Colchester today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Colchester and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Colchester?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Colchester (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 91. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Colchester?
August is typically the warmest month in Colchester, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Colchester get?
The coldest month in Colchester is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Colchester get?
Colchester sees roughly 777 mm of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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