Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Colchester today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.
Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East of England
Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East of England…
Colchester weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Colchester swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 572 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 16 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 28 frost nights, and rain on 129 days.
Warmest month
July
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
572 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
130,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
16 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
28 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
129 days
a year with 1 mm or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Colchester’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Colchester and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Colchester hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Colchester 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15°6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°9°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
16°8°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16°10°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
15°8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13°7°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
14°9°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
12°8°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
12°6°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
11°5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
13°7°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
12°5°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
9°2°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
10°2°
models agree
Colchester, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 572 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Colchester right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
10°
3°
Apr
13°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
20°
10°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
8°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Colchester's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C
Around Colchester, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
3 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
9 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.2°C
+11
+15
+1%
1996
−1.4°C
−0
+26
−1%
1997
+0.1°C
+7
−3
−2%
1998
−0.2°C
−5
−1
+7%
1999
+0.2°C
−1
−7
+3%
2000
−0.1°C
−9
−6
+3%
2001
−0.6°C
−0
+16
−2%
2002
+0.3°C
−3
−18
−1%
2003
−0.1°C
+3
+3
−6%
2004
±0.0°C
−6
−2
−2%
2005
+0.1°C
−0
+2
−1%
2006
+0.5°C
+11
+8
−1%
2007
+0.3°C
−9
−10
+1%
2008
−0.2°C
−5
−4
+5%
2009
−0.1°C
−3
+10
−2%
2010
−1.3°C
−4
+47
−8%
2011
+0.4°C
−3
−10
+1%
2012
−0.5°C
−2
−2
−1%
2013
−0.9°C
−3
+23
−1%
2014
+0.8°C
−3
−29
−1%
2015
±0.0°C
−7
−3
+7%
2016
+0.1°C
−1
+1
−2%
2017
+0.2°C
−2
−2
−1%
2018
+0.4°C
+12
−2
−2%
2019
+0.3°C
+1
−14
−1%
2020
+0.6°C
+5
−26
+7%
2021
−0.2°C
−1
+9
−2%
2022
+1.1°C
+16
−12
−2%
2023
+0.9°C
+5
−1
+1%
2024
+0.9°C
+3
−19
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Colchester, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Colchester?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C
98±0.6 mph
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
90
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C
92±2.5 mph
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Met OfficeUKMO model
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°14° to 16°
models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow
±3°12° to 16°
±20%80% to 100% chance
Mon
±1°15° to 16°
±11%89% to 100% chance
Tue
±1°16° to 17°
±67%33% to 100% chance
Wed
±1°15° to 15°
±8%0% to 8% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Colchester
today, local time
Sunrise
07:36
Sunset
17:43
Daylight
10h 7m
Common questions
What's the weather in Colchester today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Colchester today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Colchester today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Colchester on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 80% (Met Office 100%, European 80%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Colchester?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Colchester (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Colchester?
July is typically the warmest month in Colchester, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Colchester get?
The coldest month in Colchester is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Colchester get?
Colchester sees roughly 572 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Colchester getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Colchester, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
