Latest for Bala: Met Office (UKMO model): 8° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 6° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 7° Overcast.
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Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for WalesChecking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…
Bala weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsBala swings 17°C across the year, from 18°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1524 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Bala and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Bala hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Bala 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitBala, Wales is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1524 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Bala right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
Bala climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Bala's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Bala, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.1°C | +11 | +3% |
| 1996 | −1.3°C | +38 | +0% |
| 1997 | +0.1°C | −2 | −3% |
| 1998 | ±0.0°C | −11 | +8% |
| 1999 | +0.2°C | −11 | +5% |
| 2000 | −0.1°C | −7 | +3% |
| 2001 | −0.5°C | +14 | −5% |
| 2002 | ±0.0°C | −7 | +3% |
| 2003 | ±0.0°C | +5 | −3% |
| 2004 | +0.2°C | −5 | +0% |
| 2005 | +0.3°C | +1 | +0% |
| 2006 | +0.4°C | +13 | +0% |
| 2007 | +0.3°C | −12 | +0% |
| 2008 | −0.2°C | −3 | +8% |
| 2009 | −0.2°C | +5 | +0% |
| 2010 | −1.3°C | +48 | −13% |
| 2011 | +0.2°C | −7 | +3% |
| 2012 | −0.6°C | +3 | −3% |
| 2013 | −0.7°C | +34 | +0% |
| 2014 | +0.5°C | −24 | +0% |
| 2015 | −0.2°C | −12 | +8% |
| 2016 | −0.1°C | −2 | −5% |
| 2017 | +0.3°C | −13 | +0% |
| 2018 | +0.2°C | +6 | −3% |
| 2019 | +0.1°C | −13 | −3% |
| 2020 | +0.4°C | −22 | +8% |
| 2021 | +0.2°C | +4 | −8% |
| 2022 | +0.9°C | −10 | −3% |
| 2023 | +0.9°C | −7 | +0% |
| 2024 | +0.6°C | −18 | −3% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Bala, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Bala?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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