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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Ashton in Makerfield weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Ashton in Makerfield today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain.

14°8°
11°9°
16°8°
16°10°
14°10°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±2°
Met OfficeUKMO model
10°
Rain
Feels 5° · Wind 20 mph · Humidity 93%
EuropeanECMWF
10°
Light rain
Feels 5° · Wind 18 mph · Humidity 95%
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Light rain
Feels 6° · Wind 19 mph · Humidity 92%

Latest for Ashton in Makerfield: Met Office (UKMO model): 10° Rain · European (ECMWF): 10° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Light rain.

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Ashton in Makerfield weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for North West England

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Ashton in Makerfield weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Ashton in Makerfield swings 18°C across the year, from 19°C highs in July to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1067 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 8 days a year at 25°C or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 183 days.

Warmest month
July
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
1067 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
26,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
8 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
183 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Ashton in Makerfield’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Ashton in Makerfield and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ashton in Makerfield hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ashton in Makerfield 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
14° 8°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
11° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
±2°
Fri
Drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
11° 7°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
10° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
9° 4°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
8° 2°
±3°
Fri
Drizzle
8° 3°
±5°

Ashton in Makerfield, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1067 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Ashton in Makerfield right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Ashton in Makerfield climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
19°
13°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Ashton in Makerfield has changed since 1995

Ashton in Makerfield sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Manchester. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Manchester page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ashton in Makerfield?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C97±0.9 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
80
/100rank #3
93±0.4°C95±1.5 mph5374% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°13° to 14°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 11°±4%96% to 100% chance
Mon±1°16° to 16°±9%91% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±35%65% to 100% chance
Wed±2°13° to 15°±28%39% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ashton in Makerfield

today, local time
Sunrise
07:54
Sunset
17:54
Daylight
10h 0m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ashton in Makerfield today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Ashton in Makerfield today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Ashton in Makerfield today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Ashton in Makerfield on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 96% (Met Office 100%, European 96%, American 97%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ashton in Makerfield?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ashton in Makerfield (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ashton in Makerfield?
July is typically the warmest month in Ashton in Makerfield, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Ashton in Makerfield get?
The coldest month in Ashton in Makerfield is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Ashton in Makerfield get?
Ashton in Makerfield sees roughly 1067 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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