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Pukekohe East weekend weather

This weekend in Pukekohe East, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 21° across the weekend. Agreement is medium - plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day. Rain chance reaches 94% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-11-07 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Drizzle
High 20°·Low 16°·Rain 91%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Heavy showers
High 23°·Low 12°·Rain 94%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Thunderstorm
High 21°·Low 15°·Rain 85%

The models range from 20° to 23°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Sun

2026-11-08 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
High 20°·Low 14°·Rain 50%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Light drizzle
High 22°·Low 11°·Rain 29%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Fog
High 21°·Low 13°·Rain 29%

The models range from 20° to 22°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°21° to 23°±10%78% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±3°21° to 24°±55%18% to 73% chance
Fri±4°22° to 25°±19%78% to 97% chance
Sat±3°20° to 23°±9%85% to 94% chance
Sun±2°20° to 22°±21%29% to 50% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 94%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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