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Palmerston North weekend weather

This weekend in Palmerston North, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 19° across the weekend. Agreement is medium - plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day. Rain chance reaches 86% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-11-07 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light rain
High 21°·Low 15°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Rain
High 19°·Low 11°·Rain 74%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Showers
High 21°·Low 15°·Rain 83%

The models range from 19° to 21°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Sun

2026-11-08 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
High 20°·Low 14°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
High 19°·Low 11°·Rain 19%
GermanDWD ICON
17°
Cloudy
High 17°·Low 12°·Rain 33%

The models range from 17° to 20°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°19° to 22°±48%23% to 71% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 23°±22%33% to 55% chance
Thu±2°23° to 25°±36%31% to 67% chance
Fri±5°23° to 27°±33%67% to 100% chance
Sat±3°19° to 21°±12%74% to 86% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 86%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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