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CheckWeather NZMerivale
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Merivale weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Merivale's high today between 10° and 13°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain.

11°
10°
11°
13°
10°
16°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±8°
EuropeanECMWF
Light drizzle
Feels 7° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 70%
AmericanNOAA GFS
Overcast
Feels 7° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 69%
GermanDWD ICON
Overcast
Feels 7° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 67%

Latest for Merivale: European (ECMWF): 9° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 9° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 9° Overcast.

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Merivale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
10°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
10°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
16°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
14°
±7°
Mon
Mostly clear
17°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
15°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
14°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
14°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
14°
±7°

Merivale, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 3°C), with roughly 740 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Merivale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Merivale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
13°
Feb
22°
13°
Mar
19°
10°
Apr
17°
May
14°
Jun
12°
Jul
11°
Aug
12°
Sep
15°
Oct
17°
Nov
18°
Dec
21°
12°

Which forecast is most accurate in Merivale?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.7 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
83
/100rank #2
83±1.0°C92±4.0 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C91±4.3 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 237 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°10° to 13°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°9° to 11°±10%90% to 100% chance
Tue±2°11° to 12°±10%3% to 13% chance
Wed±2°12° to 14°±7%0% to 7% chance
Thumodels agree10° to 10°±31%55% to 86% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Merivale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:48
Sunset
18:08
Daylight
11h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Merivale today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Merivale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Merivale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Merivale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Merivale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Merivale (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Merivale?
January is typically the warmest month in Merivale, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Merivale get?
The coldest month in Merivale is July, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Merivale get?
Merivale sees roughly 740 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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