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Lower Hutt weekend weather

This weekend in Lower Hutt, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 19° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 78% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-11-07 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Drizzle
High 23°·Low 16°·Rain 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Drizzle
High 17°·Low 12°·Rain 52%
GermanDWD ICON
18°
Showers
High 18°·Low 14°·Rain 78%

The models are 6° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-11-08 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Drizzle
High 20°·Low 14°·Rain 55%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
High 18°·Low 12°·Rain 6%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Cloudy
High 16°·Low 14°·Rain 8%

The models range from 16° to 20°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°17° to 18°±78%0% to 78% chance
Tomorrow±1°20° to 21°±13%2% to 15% chance
Thu±1°20° to 22°±21%3% to 24% chance
Fri±2°19° to 21°±56%39% to 95% chance
Sat±6°17° to 23°±26%52% to 78% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 78%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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