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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Epsom weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Epsom's high today between 19° and 22°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 8% chance of rain.

20°10°
19°12°
21°11°
19°12°
17°11°
18°12°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Fog
Today 20°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
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Epsom weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Epsom swings 15°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 8°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1293 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
July
1293 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
20,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Epsom and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Epsom hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Epsom 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
20° 10°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
19° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
19° 12°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
17° 11°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
19° 12°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
19° 15°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
16° 12°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree

Epsom, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 8°C), with roughly 1293 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Epsom right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Epsom climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
17°
Feb
23°
17°
Mar
22°
16°
Apr
20°
15°
May
17°
12°
Jun
16°
11°
Jul
13°
8°
Aug
14°
8°
Sep
15°
10°
Oct
16°
11°
Nov
18°
12°
Dec
21°
15°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Epsom has changed since 1995

Epsom sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Auckland. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Auckland page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Epsom?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
79±1.2°C95±2.7 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C96±2.2 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
76
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C97±1.6 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°19° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°18° to 20°±8%0% to 8% chance
Mon±1°20° to 21°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±3°18° to 20°±3%97% to 100% chance
Wed±3°16° to 19°±26%18% to 44% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Epsom

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Epsom today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Epsom's high today between 19° and 22°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 8% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Epsom today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Epsom on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 8% (European 8%, American 0%, German 3%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Epsom?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Epsom (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Epsom?
February is typically the warmest month in Epsom, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Epsom get?
The coldest month in Epsom is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Epsom get?
Epsom sees roughly 1293 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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