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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve's high today between 11° and 14°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 15°, with a 0% chance of rain.

12°1°
15°2°
14°5°
7°0°
8°-1°
14°3°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
14°
Clear
Today 14°·Low 2°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Partly cloudy
Today 12°·Low 3°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Fog
Today 11°·Low -1°·Rain 0%
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Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve swings 41°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -15°C lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1088 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 64 days a year at 25°C or above, 11 of them at 30°C or above, 147 frost nights, and rain on 141 days.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-15°C average low
Wettest month
August
1088 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and September
Residents
143,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
64 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
147 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
141 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
12° 1°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
15° 2°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14° 5°
±4°
Tue
Mostly clear
7° 0°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° -1°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
14° 3°
±4°
Fri
Mostly clear
15° 7°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
11° 4°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
16° 5°
±4°
Mon
Light rain
14° 9°
±7°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
13° 5°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
7° 2°
±3°
Thu
Drizzle
6° 1°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
6° 1°
±5°

Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -15°C), with roughly 1088 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-7°
-14°
Feb
-4°
-15°
Mar
2°
-7°
Apr
12°
1°
May
19°
8°
Jun
23°
14°
Jul
26°
17°
Aug
24°
16°
Sep
21°
11°
Oct
13°
5°
Nov
6°
-1°
Dec
-3°
-9°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve has changed since 1995

Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Montreal. That square ran 0.8°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Montreal page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C98±1.0 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
84
/100rank #2
72±1.6°C95±2.7 km/h8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C96±2.0 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°11° to 14°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°12° to 16°±48%11% to 59% chance
Tue±1°6° to 8°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±1°7° to 8°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

today, local time
Sunrise
07:22
Sunset
17:53
Daylight
10h 31m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve's high today between 11° and 14°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 15°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve?
July is typically the warmest month in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve get?
The coldest month in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve is February, when overnight lows average about -15°C.
How much rain does Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve get?
Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve sees roughly 1088 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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