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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Clairlea-Birchmount weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 13° in Clairlea-Birchmount today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 1% chance of rain.

13°4°
16°6°
15°8°
9°4°
11°7°
18°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
14°
Clear
Today 14°·Low 4°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Mostly clear
Today 12°·Low 7°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Clear
Today 13°·Low 3°·Rain 0%
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Clairlea-Birchmount weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Clairlea-Birchmount swings 30°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 934 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 41 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 113 frost nights, and rain on 128 days.

Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
February
-7°C average low
Wettest month
November
934 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
27,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
41 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
113 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
128 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Clairlea-Birchmount’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Clairlea-Birchmount and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Clairlea-Birchmount hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Clairlea-Birchmount 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
13° 4°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 6°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
11° 7°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
18° 9°
±4°
Fri
Clear
14° 8°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
14° 8°
±4°
Sun
Showers
16° 11°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16° 8°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
12° 4°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
11° 5°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
9° 3°
models agree

Clairlea-Birchmount, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 934 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Clairlea-Birchmount right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Clairlea-Birchmount climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-2°
-6°
Feb
0°
-7°
Mar
3°
-3°
Apr
9°
2°
May
15°
7°
Jun
20°
13°
Jul
23°
16°
Aug
23°
16°
Sep
18°
12°
Oct
13°
7°
Nov
7°
1°
Dec
2°
-2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Clairlea-Birchmount has changed since 1995

Clairlea-Birchmount sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Toronto. That square ran 2.1°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Toronto page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Clairlea-Birchmount?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C94±2.8 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C93±3.4 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
79
/100rank #3
67±1.8°C94±3.2 km/h8290% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°12° to 14°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°15° to 17°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±20%0% to 20% chance
Tue±1°9° to 10°±6%0% to 6% chance
Wed±4°10° to 13°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Clairlea-Birchmount

today, local time
Sunrise
07:42
Sunset
18:19
Daylight
10h 37m

Common questions

What's the weather in Clairlea-Birchmount today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 13° in Clairlea-Birchmount today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Clairlea-Birchmount today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Clairlea-Birchmount on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 1%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Clairlea-Birchmount?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Clairlea-Birchmount (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Clairlea-Birchmount?
July is typically the warmest month in Clairlea-Birchmount, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Clairlea-Birchmount get?
The coldest month in Clairlea-Birchmount is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Clairlea-Birchmount get?
Clairlea-Birchmount sees roughly 934 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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