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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Mooroolbark weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mooroolbark today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

23°15°
18°9°
15°6°
15°5°
18°6°
21°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Light rain
Today 23°·Low 15°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Light rain
Today 22°·Low 15°·Rain 81%
GermanDWD ICON
24°
Thunderstorm
Today 24°·Low 16°·Rain 50%
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Mooroolbark weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mooroolbark swings 22°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 4°C lows in July, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 916 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
September
916 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
23,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mooroolbark and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mooroolbark hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mooroolbark 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
23° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
18° 9°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 6°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 5°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 6°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
21° 9°
±4°
Fri
Light rain
18° 10°
±11°
Sat
Light rain
20° 10°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 6°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 5°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
23° 8°
±3°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
±2°
Thu
Partly cloudy
21° 8°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 9°
±4°

Mooroolbark, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 916 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mooroolbark right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Mooroolbark climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
26°
13°
Mar
23°
11°
Apr
18°
9°
May
15°
6°
Jun
13°
5°
Jul
11°
4°
Aug
13°
4°
Sep
15°
5°
Oct
18°
7°
Nov
21°
9°
Dec
23°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mooroolbark has changed since 1995

Mooroolbark sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Pakenham. That square ran 0.7°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Pakenham page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mooroolbark?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C97±1.5 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
69±1.7°C91±4.5 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
82
/100rank #3
83±1.0°C94±2.8 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±36%50% to 86% chance
Tomorrow±3°17° to 20°±2%98% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±31%30% to 61% chance
Tue±1°14° to 16°±9%18% to 27% chance
Wed±3°16° to 19°±21%3% to 24% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mooroolbark

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:44
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mooroolbark today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mooroolbark today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mooroolbark today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mooroolbark on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 98% (European 100%, American 100%, German 98%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 86%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mooroolbark?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mooroolbark (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mooroolbark?
January is typically the warmest month in Mooroolbark, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Mooroolbark get?
The coldest month in Mooroolbark is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Mooroolbark get?
Mooroolbark sees roughly 916 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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