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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Keysborough weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Keysborough today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

21°16°
18°10°
15°9°
15°8°
17°9°
20°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Drizzle
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Drizzle
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain 94%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Showers
Today 20°·Low 17°·Rain 73%
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Keysborough weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Keysborough swings 19°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 6°C lows in August, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 753 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
June
753 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
30,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Keysborough and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Keysborough hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Keysborough 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 9°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 11°
±4°
Fri
Rain
18° 12°
±9°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
19° 7°
±5°
Tue
Drizzle
22° 11°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
21° 11°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
25° 12°
±7°

Keysborough, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 753 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Keysborough right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Keysborough climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
24°
13°
Apr
19°
11°
May
16°
8°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
17°
8°
Oct
18°
9°
Nov
21°
12°
Dec
23°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Keysborough has changed since 1995

Keysborough sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Melbourne. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Melbourne page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Keysborough?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C97±1.5 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
81±1.1°C95±2.3 km/h9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
89
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C94±3.2 km/h8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°20° to 22°±21%73% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±31%28% to 59% chance
Tue±2°14° to 16°±38%26% to 64% chance
Wed±2°16° to 19°±11%3% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Keysborough

today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Keysborough today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Keysborough today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Keysborough today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Keysborough on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 94%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Keysborough?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Keysborough (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Keysborough?
January is typically the warmest month in Keysborough, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Keysborough get?
The coldest month in Keysborough is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Keysborough get?
Keysborough sees roughly 753 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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