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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Goulburn weather

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Partly cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 26° in Goulburn today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 28°, with a 99% chance of rain.

26°10°
28°16°
18°6°
16°4°
19°5°
23°5°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±5°
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Partly cloudy
Today 25°·Low 11°·Rain 18%
AmericanNOAA GFS
27°
Cloudy
Today 27°·Low 11°·Rain 3%
GermanDWD ICON
26°
Fog
Today 26°·Low 9°·Rain 3%
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Goulburn weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Goulburn swings 24°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 1°C lows in August, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 618 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
August
1°C average low
Wettest month
December
618 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
25,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Goulburn and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Goulburn hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Goulburn 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
26° 10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
28° 16°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 6°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
16° 4°
±3°
Wed
Partly cloudy
19° 5°
±4°
Thu
Clear
23° 5°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 10°
±4°
Sat
Light rain
21° 12°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
20° 9°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
24° 9°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 11°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
18° 8°
±12°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 9°
models agree

Goulburn, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 1°C), with roughly 618 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Goulburn right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Goulburn climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
23°
11°
Apr
19°
8°
May
14°
5°
Jun
11°
3°
Jul
10°
2°
Aug
11°
1°
Sep
15°
4°
Oct
19°
6°
Nov
22°
10°
Dec
25°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Goulburn's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.4°C

Around Goulburn, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −1.2°C vs the 30-year average1996: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average1997: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2019: +1.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2021: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average2022: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 35°C

no clear change

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −8 vs the 30-year average1996: −7 vs the 30-year average1997: +4 vs the 30-year average1998: +6 vs the 30-year average1999: −0 vs the 30-year average2000: +1 vs the 30-year average2001: −1 vs the 30-year average2002: −1 vs the 30-year average2003: +1 vs the 30-year average2004: +6 vs the 30-year average2005: −1 vs the 30-year average2006: +6 vs the 30-year average2007: −3 vs the 30-year average2008: −7 vs the 30-year average2009: +13 vs the 30-year average2010: −3 vs the 30-year average2011: −5 vs the 30-year average2012: −6 vs the 30-year average2013: +3 vs the 30-year average2014: +6 vs the 30-year average2015: −5 vs the 30-year average2016: −5 vs the 30-year average2017: +9 vs the 30-year average2018: +5 vs the 30-year average2019: +17 vs the 30-year average2020: +4 vs the 30-year average2021: −6 vs the 30-year average2022: −8 vs the 30-year average2023: −7 vs the 30-year average2024: −6 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

2 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +8 vs the 30-year average1996: +1 vs the 30-year average1997: +6 vs the 30-year average1998: +0 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: −3 vs the 30-year average2001: −3 vs the 30-year average2002: −1 vs the 30-year average2003: +2 vs the 30-year average2004: −4 vs the 30-year average2005: −1 vs the 30-year average2006: +3 vs the 30-year average2007: +1 vs the 30-year average2008: +5 vs the 30-year average2009: −4 vs the 30-year average2010: +3 vs the 30-year average2011: −1 vs the 30-year average2012: −2 vs the 30-year average2013: −6 vs the 30-year average2014: +1 vs the 30-year average2015: +4 vs the 30-year average2016: −3 vs the 30-year average2017: +4 vs the 30-year average2018: +4 vs the 30-year average2019: −3 vs the 30-year average2020: −4 vs the 30-year average2021: −3 vs the 30-year average2022: −2 vs the 30-year average2023: −4 vs the 30-year average2024: −2 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +9% vs the 30-year average1997: −6% vs the 30-year average1998: −2% vs the 30-year average1999: −6% vs the 30-year average2000: +2% vs the 30-year average2001: +2% vs the 30-year average2002: +5% vs the 30-year average2003: +2% vs the 30-year average2004: +5% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: +2% vs the 30-year average2008: +2% vs the 30-year average2009: +5% vs the 30-year average2010: −6% vs the 30-year average2011: −2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −6% vs the 30-year average2015: −6% vs the 30-year average2016: +5% vs the 30-year average2017: −2% vs the 30-year average2018: +2% vs the 30-year average2019: +2% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: −2% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −2% vs the 30-year average2024: −6% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >35°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.2°C−8+8+5%
1996−1.0°C−7+1+9%
1997±0.0°C+4+6−6%
1998+0.3°C+6+0−2%
1999−0.2°C−0−1−6%
2000−0.3°C+1−3+2%
2001+0.2°C−1−3+2%
2002+0.2°C−1−1+5%
2003−0.3°C+1+2+2%
2004+0.3°C+6−4+5%
2005+0.4°C−1−1−2%
2006+0.4°C+6+3−2%
2007+0.2°C−3+1+2%
2008−0.4°C−7+5+2%
2009+0.8°C+13−4+5%
2010−0.2°C−3+3−6%
2011−0.3°C−5−1−2%
2012−0.6°C−6−2−2%
2013+0.2°C+3−6+2%
2014+0.5°C+6+1−6%
2015−0.1°C−5+4−6%
2016+0.6°C−5−3+5%
2017+0.6°C+9+4−2%
2018+0.7°C+5+4+2%
2019+1.2°C+17−3+2%
2020−0.2°C+4−4+2%
2021−1.0°C−6−3−2%
2022−1.0°C−8−2+2%
2023+0.6°C−7−4−2%
2024+0.9°C−6−2−6%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Goulburn, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Goulburn?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C98±1.1 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C92±3.9 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
81
/100rank #3
81±1.0°C96±2.1 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°25° to 27°±15%3% to 18% chance
Tomorrow±3°27° to 29°±14%85% to 99% chance
Mon±3°17° to 20°±19%75% to 94% chance
Tue±3°15° to 18°±10%6% to 16% chance
Wed±4°17° to 21°±5%2% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Goulburn

today, local time
Sunrise
06:08
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
13h 14m

Common questions

What's the weather in Goulburn today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 26° in Goulburn today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 28°, with a 99% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Goulburn today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Goulburn on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 85% (European 99%, American 92%, German 85%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 18%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Goulburn?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Goulburn (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Goulburn?
January is typically the warmest month in Goulburn, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Goulburn get?
The coldest month in Goulburn is August, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Goulburn get?
Goulburn sees roughly 618 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Goulburn getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Goulburn, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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