Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 4°C
Ngunnawal weather
Loading live data…
Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Ngunnawal's high today between 24° and 28°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: showers, around 26°, with a 100% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Ngunnawal swings 25°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 1°C lows in July, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 708 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
1°C average low
Wettest month
November
708 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
11,000
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Ngunnawal and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Ngunnawal hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Ngunnawal 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
26°10°
±4°
Tomorrow
Showers
26°14°
±5°
Mon
Light rain
18°6°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
17°3°
±6°
Wed
Partly cloudy
19°4°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
22°5°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
19°9°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
22°11°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
20°9°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
20°6°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22°8°
±4°
Wed
Drizzle
24°11°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
17°8°
±10°
Fri
Cloudy
24°7°
models agree
Ngunnawal, Australian Capital Territory is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 1°C), with roughly 708 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ngunnawal right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
15°
Feb
26°
14°
Mar
23°
11°
Apr
18°
7°
May
15°
5°
Jun
11°
3°
Jul
10°
1°
Aug
11°
1°
Sep
15°
3°
Oct
18°
5°
Nov
21°
9°
Dec
25°
12°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Ngunnawal's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Ngunnawal, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 35°C
1 more day a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
4 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >35°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.4°C
−7
+8
+4%
1996
−1.3°C
−7
+3
+9%
1997
+0.1°C
+1
+13
−4%
1998
+0.1°C
+4
−2
−1%
1999
−0.2°C
−0
−0
−6%
2000
−0.5°C
−6
+2
−1%
2001
±0.0°C
−0
−5
−1%
2002
+0.2°C
−1
+3
+4%
2003
−0.3°C
+1
+6
+1%
2004
+0.1°C
+8
+3
+4%
2005
+0.2°C
−1
−1
−1%
2006
+0.5°C
+4
+4
−1%
2007
+0.3°C
−0
−4
+1%
2008
−0.4°C
−6
+9
+1%
2009
+0.6°C
+11
−8
+9%
2010
−0.4°C
−3
−1
−4%
2011
−0.5°C
−4
−1
−4%
2012
−0.9°C
−6
+6
−4%
2013
+0.3°C
+8
−10
+4%
2014
+0.5°C
+10
−2
−6%
2015
±0.0°C
−5
+10
−6%
2016
+0.5°C
−1
−6
+4%
2017
+0.5°C
+2
+15
−1%
2018
+0.7°C
+4
+6
+1%
2019
+1.1°C
+18
−1
+1%
2020
±0.0°C
+2
−9
+1%
2021
−1.1°C
−5
−4
−1%
2022
−0.9°C
−7
−6
+4%
2023
+0.5°C
−5
−10
−4%
2024
+0.9°C
−6
−7
−4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Ngunnawal, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Ngunnawal?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C
94±3.1 km/h
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
91
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C
95±2.5 km/h
9597% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
84
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C
88±5.8 km/h
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
GermanDWD ICON
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±4°24° to 28°
±5%3% to 8% chance
Tomorrow
±5°24° to 29°
±5%95% to 100% chance
Mon
±4°16° to 20°
±14%70% to 84% chance
Tue
±6°14° to 19°
±7%4% to 11% chance
Wed
±4°17° to 21°
±7%2% to 9% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Ngunnawal
today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
19:26
Daylight
13h 16m
Common questions
What's the weather in Ngunnawal today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Ngunnawal's high today between 24° and 28°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: showers, around 26°, with a 100% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Ngunnawal today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Ngunnawal on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 95% (European 100%, American 100%, German 95%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 8%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ngunnawal?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ngunnawal (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the German at 91. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ngunnawal?
January is typically the warmest month in Ngunnawal, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Ngunnawal get?
The coldest month in Ngunnawal is July, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Ngunnawal get?
Ngunnawal sees roughly 708 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.
Is Ngunnawal getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Ngunnawal, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
