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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Earlwood weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 29° in Earlwood today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 34°, with a 94% chance of rain.

29°16°
34°19°
22°15°
23°13°
24°11°
24°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
28°
Light drizzle
Today 28°·Low 15°·Rain 37%
AmericanNOAA GFS
29°
Cloudy
Today 29°·Low 18°·Rain 3%
GermanDWD ICON
29°
Fog
Today 29°·Low 15°·Rain 0%
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Earlwood weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Earlwood swings 19°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 7°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1095 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
February
1095 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
18,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Earlwood and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Earlwood hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Earlwood 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
29° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
34° 19°
±2°
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
23° 13°
±4°
Wed
Partly cloudy
24° 11°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
24° 13°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
24° 15°
±7°
Sat
Light rain
28° 16°
±2°
Sun
Drizzle
21° 15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
23° 13°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
29° 15°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 14°
±6°

Earlwood, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1095 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Earlwood right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Earlwood climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
19°
Feb
26°
18°
Mar
25°
17°
Apr
22°
14°
May
19°
10°
Jun
17°
8°
Jul
17°
7°
Aug
18°
7°
Sep
21°
8°
Oct
22°
12°
Nov
23°
16°
Dec
26°
18°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Earlwood has changed since 1995

Earlwood sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Sydney. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Sydney page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Earlwood?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
79
/100rank #1
63±2.1°C89±5.4 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
70±1.7°C87±6.6 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
72
/100rank #3
67±1.8°C91±4.6 km/h6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°28° to 29°±37%0% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±2°33° to 35°±54%40% to 94% chance
Mon±1°22° to 22°±18%69% to 87% chance
Tue±4°21° to 25°±58%13% to 71% chance
Wed±5°21° to 26°±56%9% to 65% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Earlwood

today, local time
Sunrise
06:04
Sunset
19:16
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Earlwood today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 29° in Earlwood today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 34°, with a 94% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Earlwood today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Earlwood on Sunday 25 October: European 75%, American 94%, German 40%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 37%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Earlwood?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Earlwood (CheckWeather Score 79/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Earlwood?
January is typically the warmest month in Earlwood, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Earlwood get?
The coldest month in Earlwood is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Earlwood get?
Earlwood sees roughly 1095 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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