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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Dalby weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 24° in Dalby today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 26°, with a 98% chance of rain.

24°18°
26°19°
30°20°
28°17°
26°16°
26°16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Light rain
Today 25°·Low 18°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Showers
Today 23°·Low 18°·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
25°
Thunderstorm
Today 25°·Low 19°·Rain 95%
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Dalby weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Dalby swings 25°C across the year, from 31°C highs in January to 6°C lows in July, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 628 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
31°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
December
628 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, June and July
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Dalby and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dalby hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dalby 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
24° 18°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
26° 19°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
30° 20°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
28° 17°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
26° 16°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
26° 16°
±3°
Fri
Drizzle
25° 16°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
28° 18°
models agree
Sun
Clear
28° 16°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
28° 16°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
26° 16°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
26° 16°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
29° 17°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
27° 17°
±4°

Dalby, Queensland is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 31°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 628 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Dalby right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Dalby climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
31°
20°
Feb
31°
19°
Mar
28°
18°
Apr
25°
14°
May
22°
11°
Jun
19°
7°
Jul
18°
6°
Aug
20°
8°
Sep
24°
10°
Oct
27°
13°
Nov
29°
17°
Dec
30°
18°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Dalby's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.8°C

Around Dalby, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°C warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2019.

1995: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average1997: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average1998: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.2°C vs the 30-year average2011: −1.4°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +1.4°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2022: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2023: +1.0°C vs the 30-year average2024: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 35°C

14 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −23 vs the 30-year average1996: −20 vs the 30-year average1997: −2 vs the 30-year average1998: +5 vs the 30-year average1999: −24 vs the 30-year average2000: −14 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: +23 vs the 30-year average2003: −2 vs the 30-year average2004: +2 vs the 30-year average2005: +21 vs the 30-year average2006: +11 vs the 30-year average2007: −9 vs the 30-year average2008: −26 vs the 30-year average2009: +5 vs the 30-year average2010: −19 vs the 30-year average2011: −28 vs the 30-year average2012: −16 vs the 30-year average2013: −2 vs the 30-year average2014: +20 vs the 30-year average2015: −6 vs the 30-year average2016: +7 vs the 30-year average2017: +22 vs the 30-year average2018: +9 vs the 30-year average2019: +59 vs the 30-year average2020: +9 vs the 30-year average2021: −21 vs the 30-year average2022: −16 vs the 30-year average2023: +15 vs the 30-year average2024: +15 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +3% vs the 30-year average1996: +3% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: −2% vs the 30-year average1999: +6% vs the 30-year average2000: +3% vs the 30-year average2001: −2% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: −4% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +3% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: −2% vs the 30-year average2010: +1% vs the 30-year average2011: −4% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: −2% vs the 30-year average2014: +1% vs the 30-year average2015: −2% vs the 30-year average2016: +1% vs the 30-year average2017: −4% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: +1% vs the 30-year average2021: −2% vs the 30-year average2022: +3% vs the 30-year average2023: −4% vs the 30-year average2024: −4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >35°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.7°C−23+3%
1996−0.8°C−20+3%
1997±0.0°C−2−4%
1998±0.0°C+5−2%
1999−0.8°C−24+6%
2000−0.2°C−14+3%
2001−0.1°C+2−2%
2002+0.3°C+23+1%
2003−0.3°C−2+1%
2004+0.1°C+2−4%
2005+0.6°C+21+1%
2006+0.4°C+11+1%
2007−0.2°C−9+3%
2008−0.9°C−26+3%
2009+0.4°C+5−2%
2010−1.2°C−19+1%
2011−1.4°C−28−4%
2012−0.6°C−16−2%
2013−0.1°C−2−2%
2014+0.3°C+20+1%
2015±0.0°C−6−2%
2016+0.7°C+7+1%
2017+0.9°C+22−4%
2018+0.4°C+9+1%
2019+1.4°C+59+1%
2020+0.6°C+9+1%
2021−0.4°C−21−2%
2022−0.7°C−16+3%
2023+1.0°C+15−4%
2024+1.1°C+15−4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dalby, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Dalby?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C97±1.7 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #2
85±0.9°C83±8.7 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
82
/100rank #3
73±1.5°C97±1.7 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°23° to 25°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°25° to 27°±23%75% to 98% chance
Mon±3°29° to 32°±24%66% to 90% chance
Tue±2°26° to 28°±32%6% to 38% chance
Wed±4°24° to 28°±17%13% to 30% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dalby

today, local time
Sunrise
05:11
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dalby today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 24° in Dalby today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 26°, with a 98% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Dalby today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Dalby on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 75% (European 98%, American 90%, German 75%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dalby?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dalby (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dalby?
January is typically the warmest month in Dalby, with average highs around 31°C.
How cold does Dalby get?
The coldest month in Dalby is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Dalby get?
Dalby sees roughly 628 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Dalby getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Dalby, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°C warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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