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CheckWeather AU›Cranbourne West
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Cranbourne West weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Cranbourne West's high today between 19° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

21°15°
18°10°
15°8°
15°8°
17°8°
19°11°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Drizzle
Today 22°·Low 16°·Rain 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Heavy drizzle
Today 22°·Low 15°·Rain 94%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Thunderstorm
Today 19°·Low 16°·Rain 75%
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Cranbourne West weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Cranbourne West swings 20°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 6°C lows in August, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 758 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
October
758 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
20,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Cranbourne West and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Cranbourne West hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Cranbourne West 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21° 15°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light rain
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19° 11°
±3°
Fri
Rain
19° 11°
±5°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
19° 7°
±6°
Tue
Drizzle
23° 9°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
25° 12°
±7°

Cranbourne West, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 758 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Cranbourne West right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Cranbourne West climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
26°
14°
Mar
24°
13°
Apr
19°
10°
May
16°
8°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
17°
8°
Oct
18°
8°
Nov
22°
11°
Dec
24°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Cranbourne West has changed since 1995

Cranbourne West sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Melbourne. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Melbourne page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Cranbourne West?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.4 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
92
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C96±2.1 km/h9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
85
/100rank #3
90±0.5°C95±2.7 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°19° to 22°±19%75% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±1°14° to 15°±4%55% to 59% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±31%33% to 64% chance
Wed±2°16° to 18°±11%3% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Cranbourne West

today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Cranbourne West today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Cranbourne West's high today between 19° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Cranbourne West today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Cranbourne West on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 94%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Cranbourne West?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Cranbourne West (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Cranbourne West?
January is typically the warmest month in Cranbourne West, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Cranbourne West get?
The coldest month in Cranbourne West is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Cranbourne West get?
Cranbourne West sees roughly 758 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

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