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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Caboolture weather

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Thunderstorm,thunder likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 24° in Caboolture today. Tomorrow: thunderstorm, around 25°, with a 100% chance of rain.

24°18°
25°19°
32°20°
28°19°
27°18°
24°19°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±2°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Rain
Feels 22° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 99%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
Feels 21° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 98%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Light rain
Feels 23° · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 96%

Latest for Caboolture: European (ECMWF): 19° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 19° Light drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 21° Light rain.

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Caboolture weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Caboolture swings 20°C across the year, from 29°C highs in January to 9°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1238 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
29°C average high
Coldest month
July
9°C average low
Wettest month
February
1238 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, June and July
Residents
26,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Caboolture and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Caboolture hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Caboolture 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
24° 18°
models agree
Tomorrow
Thunderstorm
25° 19°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
32° 20°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
28° 19°
±5°
Wed
Rain
27° 18°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
24° 19°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 18°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
27° 18°
models agree
Sun
Clear
31° 18°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
24° 18°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
24° 16°
±3°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
26° 16°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
29° 16°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
26° 17°
±4°

Caboolture, Queensland is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 9°C), with roughly 1238 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Caboolture right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Caboolture climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
21°
Feb
29°
19°
Mar
27°
19°
Apr
25°
15°
May
23°
12°
Jun
22°
10°
Jul
20°
9°
Aug
22°
10°
Sep
25°
12°
Oct
26°
14°
Nov
27°
17°
Dec
29°
19°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Caboolture has changed since 1995

Caboolture sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Caloundra. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Caloundra page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Caboolture?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C97±1.6 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C95±2.6 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
71
/100rank #3
76±1.3°C97±1.3 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°23° to 24°±2%98% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°24° to 25°±25%75% to 100% chance
Mon±2°31° to 33°±7%64% to 71% chance
Tue±5°25° to 30°±42%23% to 65% chance
Wed±7°23° to 30°±46%15% to 61% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Caboolture

today, local time
Sunrise
05:04
Sunset
18:00
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Caboolture today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 24° in Caboolture today. Tomorrow: thunderstorm, around 25°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Caboolture today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Caboolture on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 75% (European 100%, American 93%, German 75%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Caboolture?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Caboolture (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Caboolture?
January is typically the warmest month in Caboolture, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Caboolture get?
The coldest month in Caboolture is July, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Caboolture get?
Caboolture sees roughly 1238 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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