Ballarat weather
Loading live data…Showers,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Ballarat's high today between 17° and 22°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: rain, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.
Latest for Ballarat: European (ECMWF): 16° Drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 16° Showers · German (DWD ICON): 18° Overcast.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Ballarat weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsBallarat swings 21°C across the year, from 24°C highs in January to 3°C lows in July, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 708 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Ballarat and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Ballarat hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Ballarat 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitBallarat, Victoria. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Ballarat right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Ballarat's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.
Ballarat weather by month
what to expect in Ballarat through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Ballarat's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Ballarat by season.
What Ballarat's weather is like through the year
Ballarat runs from warm summers, with January highs near 24°C, to cold winters, when July lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 21°C across the year). August is usually the wettest month, and Ballarat sees roughly 708 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Ballarat
The most comfortable time to visit Ballarat is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest August rain is behind you.
How Ballarat's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Ballarat, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
Days above 35°C
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >35°C vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −1.1°C | −4 | +3 | +3% |
| 1996 | −1.2°C | −5 | +2 | +5% |
| 1997 | ±0.0°C | +4 | +9 | −1% |
| 1998 | −0.3°C | +3 | +3 | −1% |
| 1999 | +0.2°C | +3 | −3 | −1% |
| 2000 | +0.1°C | +5 | −3 | −1% |
| 2001 | ±0.0°C | +5 | −3 | −1% |
| 2002 | ±0.0°C | −5 | +2 | +5% |
| 2003 | −0.1°C | −0 | +5 | +3% |
| 2004 | −0.4°C | −2 | −2 | +1% |
| 2005 | +0.2°C | −4 | −1 | +1% |
| 2006 | ±0.0°C | +4 | +1 | −4% |
| 2007 | +0.7°C | +1 | −0 | +3% |
| 2008 | −0.1°C | +3 | −0 | −1% |
| 2009 | +0.4°C | +6 | −1 | +1% |
| 2010 | −0.3°C | −3 | −0 | −6% |
| 2011 | −0.3°C | −7 | −1 | −4% |
| 2012 | −0.1°C | −0 | −0 | +1% |
| 2013 | +0.3°C | −0 | −2 | +3% |
| 2014 | +0.7°C | +5 | −1 | −1% |
| 2015 | +0.3°C | +1 | +4 | −1% |
| 2016 | +0.3°C | +1 | −0 | +3% |
| 2017 | +0.5°C | −1 | +7 | −4% |
| 2018 | +0.7°C | +3 | +2 | +3% |
| 2019 | +0.6°C | +14 | −1 | +1% |
| 2020 | −0.4°C | −3 | −2 | +3% |
| 2021 | −0.5°C | −5 | −1 | +1% |
| 2022 | ±0.0°C | −6 | −0 | −4% |
| 2023 | +0.3°C | −4 | −1 | −1% |
| 2024 | +0.9°C | −0 | −2 | −4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Ballarat, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Ballarat?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Ballarat, scoring 94/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 86. See the full AU accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.