Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 3°C
Armidale weather
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Thunderstorm,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Armidale's high today between 19° and 23°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 20°, with a 95% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Armidale swings 24°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 1°C lows in July, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 779 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
July
1°C average low
Wettest month
January
779 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and September
Residents
21,000
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Armidale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Armidale hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Armidale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
21°11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
20°14°
±6°
Mon
Thunderstorm
20°12°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
20°9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19°7°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
21°7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19°10°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
20°12°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
20°10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19°7°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
19°8°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
19°11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
21°11°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
22°10°
±3°
Armidale, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 1°C), with roughly 779 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Armidale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
14°
Feb
24°
13°
Mar
22°
12°
Apr
17°
9°
May
14°
4°
Jun
12°
3°
Jul
10°
1°
Aug
12°
1°
Sep
16°
3°
Oct
19°
7°
Nov
21°
10°
Dec
23°
11°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Armidale's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C
Around Armidale, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
11 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
6 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.8°C
−21
+10
+5%
1996
−1.2°C
−20
+3
+5%
1997
±0.0°C
−4
+1
−9%
1998
+0.3°C
+7
−3
−3%
1999
−0.5°C
−14
−7
−3%
2000
−0.3°C
−10
+5
+2%
2001
−0.3°C
−4
−1
+2%
2002
+0.5°C
+11
+5
−0%
2003
−0.2°C
+7
+3
+2%
2004
+0.1°C
+3
+11
−0%
2005
+0.5°C
+5
+0
−0%
2006
+0.2°C
+2
+0
−3%
2007
±0.0°C
−4
+3
−0%
2008
−0.8°C
−24
+12
+5%
2009
+0.3°C
+14
−6
+5%
2010
−0.7°C
−15
+5
−0%
2011
−0.8°C
−11
−5
−0%
2012
−0.4°C
−16
+2
−0%
2013
+0.2°C
+0
−2
−0%
2014
+0.6°C
+18
−6
−3%
2015
+0.1°C
−9
+2
−3%
2016
+0.6°C
+9
−1
+2%
2017
+0.6°C
+17
−2
−3%
2018
+0.7°C
+18
+2
+2%
2019
+1.7°C
+43
−5
+2%
2020
+0.3°C
+10
−11
−0%
2021
−1.0°C
−24
+3
+2%
2022
−1.0°C
−23
−4
+5%
2023
+1.0°C
+12
−4
−6%
2024
+1.3°C
+14
−10
−3%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Armidale, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Armidale?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C
97±1.4 km/h
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C
96±2.0 km/h
7184% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
74
/100rank #3
60±2.2°C
95±2.3 km/h
7687% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±3°19° to 23°
±43%55% to 98% chance
Tomorrow
±6°17° to 22°
±65%30% to 95% chance
Mon
±2°19° to 21°
±16%83% to 99% chance
Tue
±1°19° to 21°
±26%3% to 29% chance
Wed
±3°18° to 21°
±22%5% to 27% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Armidale
today, local time
Sunrise
06:05
Sunset
19:09
Daylight
13h 4m
Common questions
What's the weather in Armidale today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Armidale's high today between 19° and 23°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 20°, with a 95% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Armidale today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Armidale on Sunday 25 October: European 95%, American 95%, German 30%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 98%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Armidale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Armidale (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Armidale?
January is typically the warmest month in Armidale, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Armidale get?
The coldest month in Armidale is July, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Armidale get?
Armidale sees roughly 779 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
Is Armidale getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Armidale, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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