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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Wheaton weather

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Light rain,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 81° in Wheaton today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 82°, with a 7% chance of rain.

81°71°
82°63°
81°62°
85°62°
90°65°
91°72°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±12°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Light rain
Today 81°·Low 71°·Rain 13%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 70°·Rain 13%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Light drizzle
Today 83°·Low 71°·Rain 53%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Wheaton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
81° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
82° 63°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
81° 62°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
85° 62°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
90° 65°
±6°
Thu
Drizzle
91° 72°
±12°
Fri
Partly cloudy
84° 67°
±12°
Sat
Mostly clear
85° 66°
±11°
Sun
Mostly clear
88° 69°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
88° 69°
±16°
Tue
Drizzle
82° 65°
±25°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
74° 61°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
76° 60°
models agree
Fri
Showers
72° 59°
±12°

Wheaton, MD is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 33°F), with roughly 49 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Wheaton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Wheaton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
33°
Feb
51°
33°
Mar
56°
37°
Apr
68°
48°
May
74°
54°
Jun
84°
62°
Jul
89°
69°
Aug
85°
67°
Sep
78°
61°
Oct
69°
50°
Nov
57°
41°
Dec
47°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Wheaton?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F96±1.2 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°79° to 83°±40%13% to 53% chance
Tomorrow±3°80° to 84°±5%2% to 7% chance
Mon±4°79° to 83°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±4°82° to 86°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±6°86° to 92°±13%1% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Wheaton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:40
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in Wheaton today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Wheaton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Wheaton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Wheaton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Wheaton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Wheaton (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Wheaton?
July is typically the warmest month in Wheaton, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Wheaton get?
The coldest month in Wheaton is January, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Wheaton get?
Wheaton sees roughly 49 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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