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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Waterbury weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Waterbury today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 70°, with a 80% chance of rain.

76°61°
70°60°
76°54°
79°57°
76°61°
78°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Heavy drizzle
Today 76°·Low 61°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Cloudy
Today 76°·Low 59°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
75°
Drizzle
Today 75°·Low 63°·Rain 80%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Waterbury and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
76° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
70° 60°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
76° 54°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
79° 57°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
76° 61°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
78° 66°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
76° 60°
±11°
Sat
Cloudy
76° 57°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
79° 61°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
83° 66°
±16°
Tue
Drizzle
77° 62°
±16°
Wed
Drizzle
75° 57°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
73° 55°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
70° 57°
±6°

Waterbury, CT is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 59 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Waterbury right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Waterbury climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
41°
27°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
49°
32°
Apr
59°
40°
May
69°
49°
Jun
78°
58°
Jul
83°
66°
Aug
79°
62°
Sep
73°
57°
Oct
65°
47°
Nov
51°
35°
Dec
43°
29°

Which forecast is most accurate in Waterbury?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F98±0.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F96±1.3 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°75° to 76°±66%14% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±1°70° to 70°±59%21% to 80% chance
Mon±1°75° to 77°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°78° to 81°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wed±5°73° to 78°±4%14% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waterbury

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waterbury today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Waterbury today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Waterbury today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Waterbury and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waterbury?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waterbury (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waterbury?
July is typically the warmest month in Waterbury, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Waterbury get?
The coldest month in Waterbury is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Waterbury get?
Waterbury sees roughly 59 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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