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Staten Island weekend weather

This weekend in Staten Island, NY, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 60° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 52% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-11-07 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
65°
Light rain
High 65°·Low 53°·Rain 52%
AmericanNOAA GFS
59°
Cloudy
High 59°·Low 43°·Rain 52%
EuropeanECMWF
67°
Mostly clear
High 67°·Low 53°·Rain 43%

The models are 8° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-11-08 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
60°
Mostly clear
High 60°·Low 48°·Rain 7%
AmericanNOAA GFS
52°
Cloudy
High 52°·Low 41°·Rain 7%
EuropeanECMWF
62°
Light drizzle
High 62°·Low 50°·Rain 12%

The models are 10° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree68° to 68°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±5°68° to 73°±3%0% to 3% chance
Thu±5°70° to 75°±3%45% to 48% chance
Fri±3°66° to 70°±16%55% to 71% chance
Sat±8°59° to 67°±9%43% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 52%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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