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CheckWeather USSarasota
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Sarasota weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 90° in Sarasota today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 88°, with a 66% chance of rain.

90°78°
88°78°
87°77°
88°77°
90°77°
88°77°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Mostly clear
Today 89°·Low 77°·Rain 9%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Partly cloudy
Today 92°·Low 78°·Rain 9%
EuropeanECMWF
90°
Light drizzle
Today 90°·Low 78°·Rain 51%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Sarasota and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
90° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
88° 78°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
87° 77°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
88° 77°
±9°
Wed
Thunderstorm
90° 77°
±7°
Thu
Thunderstorm
88° 77°
±8°
Fri
Partly cloudy
89° 78°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
89° 78°
±11°
Sun
Showers
92° 78°
±8°
Mon
Drizzle
90° 77°
±11°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
90° 77°
±9°
Wed
Thunderstorm
89° 78°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
87° 77°
±7°
Fri
Thunderstorm
89° 75°
±10°

Sarasota, FL is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 56°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Sarasota right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Sarasota climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
69°
56°
Feb
72°
59°
Mar
76°
64°
Apr
79°
67°
May
84°
72°
Jun
86°
76°
Jul
87°
79°
Aug
87°
79°
Sep
85°
76°
Oct
81°
71°
Nov
76°
65°
Dec
69°
59°

Which forecast is most accurate in Sarasota?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
83±1.7°F91±2.8 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
60
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F92±2.5 mph1855% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°89° to 92°±42%9% to 51% chance
Tomorrow±1°87° to 89°±54%12% to 66% chance
Mon±3°86° to 89°±25%42% to 67% chance
Tue±9°85° to 93°±23%63% to 86% chance
Wed±7°88° to 95°±22%63% to 85% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Sarasota

today, local time
Sunrise
07:11
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
12h 35m

Common questions

What's the weather in Sarasota today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Sarasota today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Sarasota today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Sarasota and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Sarasota?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Sarasota (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the American at 60. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Sarasota?
July is typically the warmest month in Sarasota, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Sarasota get?
The coldest month in Sarasota is January, when overnight lows average about 56°F.
How much rain does Sarasota get?
Sarasota sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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