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CheckWeather USSanta Cruz
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 7°F

Santa Cruz weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Santa Cruz's high today between 75° and 83°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 78°, with a 0% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

78°56°
78°54°
76°54°
76°60°
88°65°
83°67°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowsplit ±8°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±10°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
75°
Mostly clear
Today 75°·Low 56°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 58°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
76°
Partly cloudy
Today 76°·Low 54°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Santa Cruz and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
78° 56°
±7°
Tomorrow
Clear
78° 54°
±8°
Mon
Mostly clear
76° 54°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
76° 60°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
88° 65°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
83° 67°
±7°
Fri
Mostly clear
76° 62°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
75° 59°
models agree
Sun
Partly cloudy
72° 57°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 58°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
76° 58°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
76° 59°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
73° 58°
±14°
Fri
Cloudy
69° 58°
±9°

Santa Cruz, CA is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 79°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 43°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Santa Cruz right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Santa Cruz climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
58°
46°
Feb
58°
43°
Mar
58°
45°
Apr
65°
47°
May
66°
50°
Jun
72°
53°
Jul
78°
56°
Aug
79°
57°
Sep
75°
56°
Oct
76°
55°
Nov
65°
48°
Dec
62°
47°

Which forecast is most accurate in Santa Cruz?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
74±2.6°F98±0.5 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
70±3.0°F95±1.4 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°75° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±8°74° to 82°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±6°73° to 79°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°75° to 77°models agree4% to 4% chance
Wed±10°83° to 93°±8%8% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Santa Cruz

today, local time
Sunrise
06:42
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Santa Cruz today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Santa Cruz today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Santa Cruz today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Santa Cruz and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Santa Cruz?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Santa Cruz (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Santa Cruz?
August is typically the warmest month in Santa Cruz, with average highs around 79°F.
How cold does Santa Cruz get?
The coldest month in Santa Cruz is February, when overnight lows average about 43°F.
How much rain does Santa Cruz get?
Santa Cruz sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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