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Salem weekend weather

This weekend in Salem, OR, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 78° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 43% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (40 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
75°
Partly cloudy
High 75°·Low 59°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
78°
Light drizzle
High 78°·Low 52°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
75°
Cloudy
High 75°·Low 60°·Rain 43%

All 3 models land within 3° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
77°
Mostly clear
High 77°·Low 54°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Clear
High 81°·Low 47°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
78°
Partly cloudy
High 78°·Low 54°·Rain 0%

All 3 models land within 3° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°80° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°87° to 89°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sat±3°75° to 78°±40%3% to 43% chance
Sun±3°77° to 81°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°84° to 87°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 43%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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