NWS, the American and the European model put Salem's high today between 56° and 65°, a 9° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 58°, with a 73% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
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Salem weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Salem swings 51°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 34°F lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 51 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 86 days a year at 77°F or above, 37 of them at 86°F or above, 41 frost nights, and rain on 136 days.
Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
January
34°F average low
Wettest month
December
51 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
176,000
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Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
86 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
41 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
136 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Salem’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Salem and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Salem hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Salem 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
60°37°
±9°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
58°43°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
60°46°
±8°
Tue
Cloudy
58°47°
±8°
Wed
Light drizzle
56°44°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
55°41°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
55°38°
±6°
Sat
Partly cloudy
55°35°
±9°
Sun
Mostly clear
57°35°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
58°40°
±9°
Tue
Clear
60°42°
±9°
Wed
Drizzle
55°42°
±11°
Thu
Light drizzle
57°49°
models agree
Salem, Oregon (OR) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 34°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Salem right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
46°
34°
Feb
50°
35°
Mar
54°
37°
Apr
58°
41°
May
68°
45°
Jun
75°
50°
Jul
85°
55°
Aug
83°
56°
Sep
75°
52°
Oct
62°
44°
Nov
51°
40°
Dec
44°
34°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Salem's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°F
Around Salem, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.6°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
5 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2 more nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
+0.6°F
−6
+4
+6%
1996
−0.4°F
+4
−6
+6%
1997
−0.1°F
−6
+9
+1%
1998
−0.1°F
−6
−14
+1%
1999
−1.0°F
−5
−7
+6%
2000
−0.8°F
−8
−1
−7%
2001
−0.4°F
−2
−1
−3%
2002
−0.1°F
+3
−1
−3%
2003
+0.8°F
+6
−10
+1%
2004
+1.2°F
+4
−15
−7%
2005
+0.3°F
−1
+6
−3%
2006
−0.1°F
+3
−0
+6%
2007
−0.8°F
−8
+8
−3%
2008
−1.7°F
+2
+18
−3%
2009
−0.8°F
+4
+25
+1%
2010
−0.6°F
−1
−13
+1%
2011
−2.1°F
−7
+17
−3%
2012
−0.8°F
−3
−0
+6%
2013
−1.0°F
−8
+8
−7%
2014
+1.7°F
+3
−5
+6%
2015
+2.3°F
+6
−14
−3%
2016
+1.2°F
+0
−8
+6%
2017
−0.3°F
+4
+7
+6%
2018
+0.8°F
+1
−7
−3%
2019
−0.4°F
−4
+13
−7%
2020
+0.3°F
+0
−0
−3%
2021
+0.6°F
+7
−7
+1%
2022
+0.1°F
+5
+6
−3%
2023
+0.6°F
+3
+4
−3%
2024
+0.8°F
+3
−13
+1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Salem, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Salem?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F
96±1.2 mph
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
85
/100rank #2
70±3.0°F
96±1.3 mph
9597% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±9°56° to 65°
±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow
±10°54° to 64°
±35%38% to 73% chance
Mon
±8°57° to 64°
±7%61% to 68% chance
Tue
±8°53° to 62°
±8%23% to 31% chance
Wed
±4°55° to 58°
±7%24% to 31% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Salem
today, local time
Sunrise
07:39
Sunset
18:11
Daylight
10h 32m
Common questions
What's the weather in Salem today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Salem's high today between 56° and 65°, a 9° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 58°, with a 73% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Salem today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Salem on Sunday, October 25: NWS 73%, American 73%, European 38%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Salem?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Salem (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Salem?
July is typically the warmest month in Salem, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Salem get?
The coldest month in Salem is January, when overnight lows average about 34°F.
How much rain does Salem get?
Salem sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Salem getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Salem, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.6°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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