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CheckWeather USSaint Paul
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Saint Paul weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 85° in Saint Paul today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 85°, with a 7% chance of rain.

85°67°
85°67°
81°68°
87°66°
79°65°
81°60°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±10°Tuesdaysplit ±10°Wednesdaysplit ±12°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Cloudy
Today 85°·Low 66°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
86°
Fog
Today 86°·Low 67°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 67°·Rain 6%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Saint Paul and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
85° 67°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
85° 67°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
81° 68°
±10°
Tue
Light rain
87° 66°
±10°
Wed
Mostly clear
79° 65°
±12°
Thu
Mostly clear
81° 60°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
84° 63°
±11°
Sat
Light drizzle
78° 64°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
67° 57°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
69° 53°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
72° 55°
±7°
Wed
Partly cloudy
76° 54°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
72° 56°
±11°
Fri
Light drizzle
74° 58°
±5°

Saint Paul, MN is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Saint Paul right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Saint Paul climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
36°
16°
Mar
40°
22°
Apr
54°
36°
May
72°
50°
Jun
80°
60°
Jul
82°
62°
Aug
80°
62°
Sep
78°
59°
Oct
62°
45°
Nov
44°
31°
Dec
34°
22°

Which forecast is most accurate in Saint Paul?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F97±1.0 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°83° to 86°±2%4% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±6°82° to 88°±4%3% to 7% chance
Mon±10°76° to 86°±3%28% to 31% chance
Tue±10°83° to 92°±5%81% to 86% chance
Wed±12°75° to 87°±26%6% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Saint Paul

today, local time
Sunrise
06:39
Sunset
19:42
Daylight
13h 3m

Common questions

What's the weather in Saint Paul today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Saint Paul today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Saint Paul today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Saint Paul and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Saint Paul?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Saint Paul (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Saint Paul?
July is typically the warmest month in Saint Paul, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Saint Paul get?
The coldest month in Saint Paul is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Saint Paul get?
Saint Paul sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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