Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 5°F
Rockford weather
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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Rockford's high today between 68° and 73°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 74°, with a 11% chance of rain.
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Rockford weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Rockford swings 69°F across the year, from 83°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 36 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 98 days a year at 77°F or above, 25 of them at 86°F or above, 124 frost nights, and rain on 119 days.
Warmest month
July
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
June
36 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
148,000
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Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
98 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
124 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
119 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Rockford’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Rockford and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rockford hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Rockford 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
70°49°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
74°51°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
65°50°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
67°48°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
71°53°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
70°53°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
68°50°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
69°54°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
64°51°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
60°41°
±9°
Tue
Cloudy
46°40°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
51°39°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
56°40°
±13°
Rockford, Illinois (IL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Rockford right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
36°
16°
Mar
47°
28°
Apr
57°
37°
May
71°
49°
Jun
81°
60°
Jul
83°
64°
Aug
81°
62°
Sep
73°
54°
Oct
60°
43°
Nov
45°
31°
Dec
33°
21°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Rockford's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.9°F
Around Rockford, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
2 fewer days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.6°F
+3
+10
+1%
1996
−3.4°F
−16
+21
+1%
1997
−1.6°F
+0
+14
−1%
1998
+2.3°F
−5
−19
−5%
1999
+0.5°F
−2
−9
+1%
2000
−0.5°F
−10
−6
−1%
2001
+0.5°F
+6
−6
−1%
2002
+0.7°F
+14
+16
+1%
2003
−0.2°F
+26
−6
+1%
2004
±0.0°F
−16
−8
+3%
2005
+1.8°F
+43
−6
−3%
2006
+1.4°F
+9
−1
+1%
2007
+0.4°F
−2
−3
+3%
2008
−2.7°F
−17
+9
+3%
2009
−2.3°F
−15
−3
−1%
2010
+0.4°F
−17
−11
−3%
2011
±0.0°F
−7
+1
+1%
2012
+3.6°F
+45
−12
−1%
2013
−1.8°F
−6
+15
+1%
2014
−3.6°F
−15
+7
+1%
2015
+0.5°F
−3
−11
+1%
2016
+1.4°F
−12
−11
−1%
2017
+0.7°F
−13
−14
+1%
2018
−0.7°F
−6
+30
−5%
2019
−1.8°F
−12
+12
−1%
2020
−0.2°F
−6
+15
−1%
2021
+1.8°F
+21
−5
−3%
2022
−0.9°F
+0
+12
+8%
2023
+2.3°F
+11
−1
−5%
2024
+2.9°F
−1
−21
+1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Rockford, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Rockford?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F
98±0.5 mph
8290% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
85
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F
96±1.2 mph
7687% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±5°68° to 73°
±11%3% to 14% chance
Tomorrow
±3°71° to 75°
±9%2% to 11% chance
Mon
±3°64° to 67°
±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue
models agree66° to 67°
±32%2% to 34% chance
Wed
±3°69° to 72°
±14%10% to 24% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Rockford
today, local time
Sunrise
07:19
Sunset
18:00
Daylight
10h 41m
Common questions
What's the weather in Rockford today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Rockford's high today between 68° and 73°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 74°, with a 11% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Rockford today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Rockford on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 11% (NWS 2%, American 2%, European 11%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 14%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rockford?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rockford (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rockford?
July is typically the warmest month in Rockford, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Rockford get?
The coldest month in Rockford is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Rockford get?
Rockford sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Rockford getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Rockford, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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