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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Rockford weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Rockford today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 82°, with a 1% chance of rain.

82°68°
82°63°
81°61°
85°61°
83°69°
80°62°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±11°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Light drizzle
Today 85°·Low 68°·Rain 10%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Light drizzle
Today 81°·Low 69°·Rain 10%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Cloudy
Today 82°·Low 68°·Rain 33%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Rockford and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
82° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
82° 63°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
81° 61°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
85° 61°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
83° 69°
±11°
Thu
Mostly clear
80° 62°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
83° 58°
±9°
Sat
Drizzle
84° 64°
±5°
Sun
Light rain
74° 63°
±8°
Mon
Drizzle
71° 56°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
69° 52°
±15°
Wed
Clear
71° 48°
±8°
Thu
Mostly clear
73° 51°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
74° 55°
models agree

Rockford, IL is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 19°F), with roughly 34 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Rockford right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Rockford climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
31°
19°
Feb
43°
23°
Mar
48°
29°
Apr
59°
39°
May
73°
51°
Jun
82°
61°
Jul
83°
64°
Aug
82°
63°
Sep
77°
58°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
48°
34°
Dec
39°
27°

Which forecast is most accurate in Rockford?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F98±0.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F95±1.5 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°81° to 85°±23%10% to 33% chance
Tomorrow±4°80° to 84°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±4°79° to 83°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±3°84° to 86°±4%6% to 10% chance
Wed±11°77° to 88°±20%60% to 80% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rockford

today, local time
Sunrise
06:26
Sunset
19:23
Daylight
12h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rockford today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Rockford today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rockford today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Rockford and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rockford?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rockford (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rockford?
July is typically the warmest month in Rockford, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Rockford get?
The coldest month in Rockford is January, when overnight lows average about 19°F.
How much rain does Rockford get?
Rockford sees roughly 34 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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