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Machesney Park weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
51°
Partly cloudy
Feels 47° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 81%
AmericanNOAA GFS
49°
Partly cloudy
Feels 45° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 79%
EuropeanECMWF
52°
Overcast
Feels 48° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 78%

Latest for Machesney Park: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 51° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 49° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 52° Overcast.

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Machesney Park weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Machesney Park…

Machesney Park weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Machesney Park swings 68°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 36 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 97 days a year at 77°F or above, 24 of them at 86°F or above, 126 frost nights, and rain on 118 days.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
June
36 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
23,000
share this forecast
Warm days
97 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
126 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
118 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Machesney Park’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Machesney Park and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Machesney Park hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Machesney Park 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Machesney Park, Illinois (IL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Machesney Park right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Machesney Park climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
35°
16°
Mar
46°
28°
Apr
57°
37°
May
70°
49°
Jun
81°
60°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
81°
62°
Sep
73°
54°
Oct
60°
42°
Nov
45°
31°
Dec
33°
22°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Machesney Park has changed since 1995

Machesney Park sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Janesville. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Janesville page.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Machesney Park today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Machesney Park today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Machesney Park today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Machesney Park and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Machesney Park?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Machesney Park forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Machesney Park?
July is typically the warmest month in Machesney Park, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Machesney Park get?
The coldest month in Machesney Park is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Machesney Park get?
Machesney Park sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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