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CheckWeather USRichmond
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Richmond weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 84° in Richmond today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 83°, with a 14% chance of rain.

84°71°
83°68°
83°64°
85°63°
90°65°
94°71°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
86°
Showers
Today 86°·Low 72°·Rain 61%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Showers
Today 83°·Low 69°·Rain 61%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Light drizzle
Today 83°·Low 71°·Rain 75%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Richmond and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
84° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
83° 68°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
83° 64°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
85° 63°
±5°
Wed
Mostly clear
90° 65°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
94° 71°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
86° 71°
±11°
Sat
Light drizzle
88° 68°
±9°
Sun
Mostly clear
91° 70°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
92° 72°
±13°
Tue
Drizzle
85° 68°
±24°
Wed
Thunderstorm
78° 63°
±6°
Thu
Drizzle
72° 61°
±9°
Fri
Showers
71° 61°
±13°

Richmond, VA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 35°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Richmond right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Richmond climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
51°
35°
Feb
56°
37°
Mar
61°
41°
Apr
73°
50°
May
76°
57°
Jun
86°
64°
Jul
90°
71°
Aug
87°
68°
Sep
80°
63°
Oct
71°
51°
Nov
60°
42°
Dec
52°
35°

Which forecast is most accurate in Richmond?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F97±1.0 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F95±1.7 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°83° to 86°±14%61% to 75% chance
Tomorrow±2°82° to 83°±2%12% to 14% chance
Mon±4°81° to 85°±1%2% to 3% chance
Tue±5°82° to 87°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°88° to 91°±9%1% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Richmond

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:33
Daylight
12h 50m

Common questions

What's the weather in Richmond today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Richmond today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Richmond today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Richmond and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Richmond?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Richmond (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Richmond?
July is typically the warmest month in Richmond, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Richmond get?
The coldest month in Richmond is January, when overnight lows average about 35°F.
How much rain does Richmond get?
Richmond sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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