Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 5°F
Oshkosh weather
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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Oshkosh's high today between 66° and 71°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 65°, with a 15% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
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Oshkosh weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Oshkosh swings 69°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 12°F lows in February, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 31 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 76 days a year at 77°F or above, 16 of them at 86°F or above, 135 frost nights, and rain on 116 days.
Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
February
12°F average low
Wettest month
June
31 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, August and September
Residents
67,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
76 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
135 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
116 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Oshkosh’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Oshkosh and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Oshkosh hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Oshkosh 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
69°53°
±5°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
65°55°
±10°
Mon
Cloudy
56°48°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
58°47°
±5°
Wed
Partly cloudy
68°53°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
66°51°
±9°
Fri
Partly cloudy
63°49°
±14°
Sat
Light drizzle
65°54°
±14°
Sun
Light drizzle
61°49°
±12°
Mon
Light drizzle
57°41°
±10°
Tue
Cloudy
45°37°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
51°38°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
54°37°
±13°
Oshkosh, Wisconsin (WI) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 12°F), with roughly 31 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Oshkosh right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
23°
13°
Feb
30°
12°
Mar
42°
25°
Apr
54°
36°
May
66°
46°
Jun
77°
59°
Jul
81°
63°
Aug
78°
62°
Sep
71°
54°
Oct
58°
43°
Nov
43°
31°
Dec
30°
18°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Oshkosh's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.9°F
Around Oshkosh, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
1 fewer day a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.1°F
+9
+9
+2%
1996
−3.8°F
−10
+20
+2%
1997
−1.8°F
−9
+15
−2%
1998
+3.0°F
−5
−21
−2%
1999
+0.7°F
−1
−4
+2%
2000
−0.2°F
−12
−9
−0%
2001
+0.9°F
+6
−16
−0%
2002
+0.7°F
+8
+22
+4%
2003
−0.9°F
+13
+6
+2%
2004
−0.7°F
−13
−3
+2%
2005
+1.4°F
+28
−7
−2%
2006
+2.0°F
+14
−5
−0%
2007
+0.7°F
+11
−11
+4%
2008
−2.7°F
−12
+6
−0%
2009
−1.8°F
−10
+1
−2%
2010
+0.9°F
−10
−16
−4%
2011
−0.4°F
−5
+0
−2%
2012
+3.6°F
+35
−16
−0%
2013
−2.0°F
−0
+13
+2%
2014
−4.2°F
−12
+8
+2%
2015
+0.5°F
+1
−12
+4%
2016
+1.4°F
+1
−17
−0%
2017
±0.0°F
−9
−5
+2%
2018
−0.6°F
+9
+23
−2%
2019
−2.4°F
−12
+11
−0%
2020
±0.0°F
−6
+24
−0%
2021
+1.8°F
−1
−2
−4%
2022
−0.7°F
−0
+5
+6%
2023
+2.3°F
+7
−4
−4%
2024
+3.2°F
−7
−22
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Oshkosh, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Oshkosh?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F
98±0.6 mph
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
78
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F
95±1.6 mph
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±5°66° to 71°
±10%5% to 15% chance
Tomorrow
±10°60° to 69°
±8%7% to 15% chance
Mon
±4°54° to 58°
±19%3% to 22% chance
Tue
±5°55° to 60°
±43%8% to 51% chance
Wed
±6°64° to 70°
±17%22% to 39% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Oshkosh
today, local time
Sunrise
07:20
Sunset
17:55
Daylight
10h 35m
Common questions
What's the weather in Oshkosh today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Oshkosh's high today between 66° and 71°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 65°, with a 15% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Oshkosh today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Oshkosh on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 15% (NWS 7%, American 7%, European 15%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 15%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oshkosh?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oshkosh (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oshkosh?
July is typically the warmest month in Oshkosh, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Oshkosh get?
The coldest month in Oshkosh is February, when overnight lows average about 12°F.
How much rain does Oshkosh get?
Oshkosh sees roughly 31 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Oshkosh getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Oshkosh, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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