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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Oshkosh weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 74° in Oshkosh today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 77°, with a 4% chance of rain.

74°67°
77°64°
78°61°
76°64°
80°67°
75°59°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
74°
Light drizzle
Today 74°·Low 67°·Rain 11%
AmericanNOAA GFS
75°
Cloudy
Today 75°·Low 68°·Rain 11%
EuropeanECMWF
73°
Light drizzle
Today 73°·Low 66°·Rain 59%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Oshkosh and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
74° 67°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
77° 64°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
78° 61°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
76° 64°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
80° 67°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
75° 59°
±8°
Fri
Mostly clear
80° 59°
±15°
Sat
Light drizzle
80° 63°
±11°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
70° 59°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
64° 55°
±11°
Tue
Light drizzle
67° 52°
±9°
Wed
Partly cloudy
70° 47°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
72° 50°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
74° 54°
models agree

Oshkosh, WI is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 19°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Oshkosh right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Oshkosh climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
29°
19°
Feb
38°
20°
Mar
43°
26°
Apr
56°
38°
May
69°
49°
Jun
78°
60°
Jul
81°
63°
Aug
79°
63°
Sep
75°
58°
Oct
62°
47°
Nov
46°
34°
Dec
36°
24°

Which forecast is most accurate in Oshkosh?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
86±1.4°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F96±1.3 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°73° to 75°±48%11% to 59% chance
Tomorrow±3°75° to 78°±3%1% to 4% chance
Mon±4°76° to 79°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±2°75° to 77°±7%59% to 66% chance
Wed±6°76° to 82°±16%69% to 85% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oshkosh

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:23
Daylight
13h 1m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oshkosh today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Oshkosh today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oshkosh today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Oshkosh and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oshkosh?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oshkosh (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oshkosh?
July is typically the warmest month in Oshkosh, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Oshkosh get?
The coldest month in Oshkosh is January, when overnight lows average about 19°F.
How much rain does Oshkosh get?
Oshkosh sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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