Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 4°F
Olympia weather
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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Olympia's high today between 58° and 62°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 56°, with a 66% chance of rain.
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Olympia weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Olympia swings 45°F across the year, from 80°F highs in July to 35°F lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 52 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 58 days a year at 77°F or above, 17 of them at 86°F or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 148 days.
Warmest month
July
80°F average high
Coldest month
January
35°F average low
Wettest month
November
52 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
56,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
58 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
148 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Olympia’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Olympia and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Olympia hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Olympia 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
59°37°
±4°
Tomorrow
Light rain
56°41°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
59°43°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
58°43°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
54°42°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
51°39°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
54°37°
±5°
Sat
Partly cloudy
52°36°
±8°
Sun
Drizzle
56°36°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
55°40°
±6°
Tue
Mostly clear
58°40°
±5°
Wed
Light rain
54°43°
±5°
Thu
Showers
55°49°
±4°
Olympia, Washington (WA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 80°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 35°F), with roughly 52 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Olympia right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
45°
35°
Feb
48°
36°
Mar
53°
37°
Apr
57°
41°
May
66°
46°
Jun
71°
50°
Jul
80°
53°
Aug
78°
54°
Sep
72°
52°
Oct
61°
45°
Nov
50°
39°
Dec
45°
35°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Olympia's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°F
Around Olympia, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.6°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 77°F
10 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Frost nights
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−3%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >77°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
+0.9°F
−8
−1
+7%
1996
−0.9°F
−5
+8
+1%
1997
+0.5°F
−5
−4
+7%
1998
+0.7°F
+3
−15
+1%
1999
−1.1°F
−6
−12
+7%
2000
−1.1°F
−9
+13
−4%
2001
−0.9°F
−10
−2
+1%
2002
−0.4°F
+0
−1
+1%
2003
+0.7°F
+6
−7
+1%
2004
+1.3°F
+4
−22
−4%
2005
+0.4°F
−4
+9
−4%
2006
+0.2°F
+7
+5
+7%
2007
−0.9°F
−11
+14
+1%
2008
−1.8°F
−6
+14
−4%
2009
−0.9°F
+1
+32
−4%
2010
−0.5°F
−10
−17
+1%
2011
−2.0°F
−14
+17
+1%
2012
−0.9°F
−9
+0
+1%
2013
−0.5°F
−5
+5
−4%
2014
+1.3°F
+10
−2
+1%
2015
+2.2°F
+14
−9
−4%
2016
+1.3°F
+2
−9
+1%
2017
−0.5°F
+11
+14
+1%
2018
+0.9°F
+12
−12
+1%
2019
−0.2°F
−8
+12
−4%
2020
+0.7°F
−4
−11
+1%
2021
+0.5°F
+9
−8
+1%
2022
+0.2°F
+18
+7
−4%
2023
+0.9°F
+12
−2
+1%
2024
+0.2°F
+2
−18
−4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Olympia, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Olympia?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F
98±0.8 mph
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
84
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F
97±1.0 mph
8290% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±4°58° to 62°
±14%11% to 25% chance
Tomorrow
±3°55° to 58°
±18%48% to 66% chance
Mon
±5°56° to 62°
±23%43% to 66% chance
Tue
±1°57° to 58°
±12%18% to 30% chance
Wed
±3°53° to 55°
±18%33% to 51% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Olympia
today, local time
Sunrise
07:42
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
10h 25m
Common questions
What's the weather in Olympia today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Olympia's high today between 58° and 62°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 56°, with a 66% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Olympia today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Olympia on Sunday, October 25: NWS 66%, American 66%, European 48%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 25%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Olympia?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Olympia (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Olympia?
July is typically the warmest month in Olympia, with average highs around 80°F.
How cold does Olympia get?
The coldest month in Olympia is January, when overnight lows average about 35°F.
How much rain does Olympia get?
Olympia sees roughly 52 in of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.
Is Olympia getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Olympia, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.6°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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