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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Lacey weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Lacey's high today between 56° and 61°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 56°, with a 66% chance of rain.

58°37°
56°40°
59°42°
57°43°
53°42°
50°39°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
57°
Cloudy
Today 57°·Low 33°·Rain 9%
AmericanNOAA GFS
61°
Cloudy
Today 61°·Low 38°·Rain 9%
EuropeanECMWF
56°
Cloudy
Today 56°·Low 39°·Rain 18%
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Lacey weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Lacey weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Lacey swings 45°F across the year, from 80°F highs in July to 35°F lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 54 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 58 days a year at 77°F or above, 17 of them at 86°F or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 147 days.

Warmest month
July
80°F average high
Coldest month
January
35°F average low
Wettest month
November
54 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
46,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
58 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
147 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Lacey’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lacey and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lacey hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lacey 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
58° 37°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light rain
56° 40°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
59° 42°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
57° 43°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
53° 42°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
50° 39°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
53° 37°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
52° 35°
±8°
Sun
Drizzle
55° 34°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
56° 39°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
58° 40°
±6°
Wed
Light rain
52° 41°
±6°
Thu
Showers
56° 49°
models agree

Lacey, Washington (WA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 80°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 35°F), with roughly 54 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lacey right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lacey climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
46°
35°
Feb
47°
35°
Mar
53°
37°
Apr
57°
41°
May
66°
45°
Jun
71°
49°
Jul
80°
53°
Aug
78°
54°
Sep
72°
52°
Oct
61°
46°
Nov
50°
39°
Dec
45°
35°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Lacey has changed since 1995

Lacey sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Olympia. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Olympia page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Lacey?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
98±0.2°F98±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
91
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F97±1.1 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°56° to 61°±9%9% to 18% chance
Tomorrow±6°54° to 59°±29%37% to 66% chance
Mon±4°57° to 61°±21%45% to 66% chance
Tue±1°57° to 58°±10%17% to 27% chance
Wed±2°52° to 54°±17%35% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lacey

today, local time
Sunrise
07:42
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
10h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lacey today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Lacey's high today between 56° and 61°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 56°, with a 66% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Lacey today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Lacey on Sunday, October 25: NWS 66%, American 66%, European 37%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 18%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lacey?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lacey (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 91. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lacey?
July is typically the warmest month in Lacey, with average highs around 80°F.
How cold does Lacey get?
The coldest month in Lacey is January, when overnight lows average about 35°F.
How much rain does Lacey get?
Lacey sees roughly 54 in of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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