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CheckWeather USO'Fallon
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

O'Fallon weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 98° in O'Fallon today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 90°, with a 6% chance of rain.

98°78°
90°74°
88°66°
97°66°
99°75°
86°70°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Drizzle
Today 98°·Low 77°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Cloudy
Today 99°·Low 77°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Partly cloudy
Today 96°·Low 79°·Rain 51%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around O'Fallon and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
98° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
90° 74°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
88° 66°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 66°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
99° 75°
±5°
Thu
Showers
86° 70°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
89° 66°
±16°
Sat
Light drizzle
89° 68°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
90° 68°
±16°
Mon
Light drizzle
78° 62°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
77° 58°
±7°
Wed
Clear
76° 53°
models agree
Thu
Clear
78° 55°
±6°
Fri
Partly cloudy
77° 59°
±5°

O'Fallon, MO is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 27°F), with roughly 45 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for O'Fallon right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

O'Fallon climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
42°
27°
Feb
53°
33°
Mar
58°
38°
Apr
69°
48°
May
79°
58°
Jun
87°
66°
Jul
88°
70°
Aug
86°
69°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
71°
51°
Nov
57°
40°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in O'Fallon?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F97±0.8 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F95±1.4 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°96° to 99°±37%14% to 51% chance
Tomorrow±3°89° to 91°±4%2% to 6% chance
Mon±1°88° to 88°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±6°94° to 100°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°96° to 101°±9%34% to 43% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in O'Fallon

today, local time
Sunrise
06:35
Sunset
19:27
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in O'Fallon today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for O'Fallon today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in O'Fallon today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for O'Fallon and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for O'Fallon?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for O'Fallon (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in O'Fallon?
July is typically the warmest month in O'Fallon, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does O'Fallon get?
The coldest month in O'Fallon is January, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does O'Fallon get?
O'Fallon sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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