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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Napa weather

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Fog,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Napa's high today between 74° and 79°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 77°, with a 1% chance of rain.

77°52°
77°53°
84°53°
89°58°
96°66°
93°70°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±17°Thursdaysplit ±13°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
74°
Fog
Today 74°·Low 52°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 51°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
77°
Mostly clear
Today 77°·Low 53°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Napa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Fog
77° 52°
±5°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
77° 53°
±5°
Mon
Mostly clear
84° 53°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
89° 58°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
96° 66°
±17°
Thu
Mostly clear
93° 70°
±13°
Fri
Clear
80° 60°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
77° 57°
models agree
Sun
Partly cloudy
76° 56°
±11°
Mon
Partly cloudy
78° 56°
±12°
Tue
Partly cloudy
80° 55°
±12°
Wed
Mostly clear
88° 55°
±13°
Thu
Partly cloudy
83° 56°
models agree
Fri
Clear
79° 55°
models agree

Napa, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 39°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Napa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Napa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
58°
42°
Feb
58°
39°
Mar
59°
42°
Apr
68°
44°
May
74°
50°
Jun
81°
54°
Jul
90°
57°
Aug
87°
57°
Sep
82°
55°
Oct
80°
53°
Nov
65°
44°
Dec
60°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Napa?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
86±1.4°F98±0.5 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
93
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F97±1.0 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°74° to 79°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±5°74° to 78°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±5°81° to 86°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±8°84° to 91°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±17°88° to 104°±3%3% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Napa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:42
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
12h 50m

Common questions

What's the weather in Napa today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Napa today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Napa today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Napa and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Napa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Napa (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 93. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Napa?
July is typically the warmest month in Napa, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Napa get?
The coldest month in Napa is February, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Napa get?
Napa sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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