Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 5°F
Mitchell weather
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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Mitchell's high today between 66° and 71°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 49°, with a 88% chance of rain.
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The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Mitchell and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mitchell hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Mitchell 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
69°48°
±5°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
49°42°
±7°
Mon
Light rain
49°42°
±6°
Tue
Drizzle
57°42°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
61°43°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
63°46°
±10°
Fri
Cloudy
65°48°
±14°
Sat
Light drizzle
63°50°
±12°
Sun
Partly cloudy
60°42°
±12°
Mon
Drizzle
56°40°
±10°
Tue
Cloudy
51°37°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
53°38°
±13°
Thu
Partly cloudy
60°37°
±23°
Mitchell is a small town of about 16,000 people in South Dakota (SD), sitting at 43.7°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Mitchell with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Huron, Madison, Yankton.
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.7°F
Around Mitchell, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.7°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 95°F
4 fewer days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
1 fewer night a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >95°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.4°F
−4
+7
−3%
1996
−4.5°F
−13
+21
−1%
1997
−1.2°F
−8
+13
−1%
1998
+1.5°F
−1
−19
−7%
1999
+1.3°F
−5
−12
+1%
2000
+0.6°F
+16
−3
+1%
2001
+0.7°F
+11
−8
−1%
2002
+1.1°F
+26
+19
+3%
2003
+0.6°F
+7
−7
−1%
2004
+0.4°F
−1
−7
−1%
2005
+0.9°F
−1
−0
+1%
2006
+2.0°F
+12
+6
+1%
2007
+0.4°F
−3
−11
+3%
2008
−2.3°F
−12
+15
+3%
2009
−3.0°F
−14
+1
−3%
2010
−1.8°F
−14
−13
−3%
2011
−1.4°F
−5
+2
−1%
2012
+4.2°F
+30
−21
+1%
2013
−1.6°F
−0
+28
+1%
2014
−2.1°F
−11
+6
+7%
2015
+1.5°F
−3
−20
+1%
2016
+2.0°F
−4
−23
+3%
2017
+0.7°F
−3
−8
−1%
2018
−2.0°F
−10
+17
−5%
2019
−3.6°F
−14
+15
−3%
2020
+0.2°F
−8
+14
−1%
2021
+2.5°F
+16
−11
−1%
2022
±0.0°F
+17
+15
+9%
2023
+2.2°F
+9
+5
−7%
2024
+2.2°F
−9
−18
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Mitchell, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in the US?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F
97±1.1 mph
9396% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F
94±2.0 mph
7184% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±5°66° to 71°
±39%24% to 63% chance
Tomorrow
±7°46° to 53°
±12%76% to 88% chance
Mon
±6°46° to 51°
±11%82% to 93% chance
Tue
±5°54° to 59°
±3%79% to 82% chance
Wed
±2°60° to 61°
±12%18% to 30% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Mitchell
today, local time
Sunrise
07:57
Sunset
18:34
Daylight
10h 37m
Common questions
What's the weather in Mitchell today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Mitchell's high today between 66° and 71°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 49°, with a 88% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mitchell today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mitchell on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 76% (NWS 88%, American 88%, European 76%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 63%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mitchell?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Mitchell forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
Is Mitchell getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Mitchell, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.7°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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