Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 5°F
Missoula weather
Loading live data…
Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Missoula's high today between 50° and 55°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 53°, with a 0% chance of rain.
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories
Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Missoula…
Missoula weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Missoula swings 71°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 13°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 15 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 83 days a year at 77°F or above, 41 of them at 86°F or above, 141 frost nights, and rain on 106 days.
Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
January
13°F average low
Wettest month
June
15 in a year
Comfortable
2 months
May and September
Residents
71,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
83 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
141 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
106 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Missoula’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Missoula and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Missoula hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Missoula 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
53°34°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
53°33°
±5°
Mon
Partly cloudy
55°33°
±5°
Tue
Light drizzle
50°36°
±10°
Wed
Light drizzle
50°35°
±6°
Thu
Light snow
50°31°
±10°
Fri
Light snow
48°32°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
48°28°
±7°
Sun
Mostly clear
48°28°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
51°31°
±9°
Tue
Partly cloudy
54°34°
±6°
Wed
Partly cloudy
56°35°
±17°
Thu
Cloudy
50°38°
±12°
Missoula, Montana (MT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 13°F), with roughly 15 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Missoula right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
32°
13°
Feb
35°
17°
Mar
46°
26°
Apr
55°
32°
May
66°
41°
Jun
72°
47°
Jul
84°
52°
Aug
82°
53°
Sep
71°
45°
Oct
57°
34°
Nov
41°
26°
Dec
32°
18°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Missoula's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.1°F
Around Missoula, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +1.1°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
5 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
12 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
+2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.4°F
−11
+12
+2%
1996
−2.5°F
−8
+16
+2%
1997
−1.6°F
−12
+4
−3%
1998
+1.4°F
+5
−10
−3%
1999
−0.2°F
−5
+11
+2%
2000
−0.5°F
+1
+5
+2%
2001
+0.4°F
−1
+8
−3%
2002
−1.3°F
−5
+14
+2%
2003
+1.6°F
+20
−1
−3%
2004
+0.5°F
−1
−4
−3%
2005
+0.2°F
−3
−5
−3%
2006
+1.1°F
+1
−4
+2%
2007
+0.5°F
+9
+1
+2%
2008
−2.5°F
−4
+3
+2%
2009
−2.0°F
−6
+16
−3%
2010
−1.3°F
−11
+0
−3%
2011
−1.8°F
−8
+3
+2%
2012
+0.5°F
+5
−8
+2%
2013
−0.4°F
+3
+3
−3%
2014
−0.7°F
−7
−11
+2%
2015
+2.7°F
+3
−17
−3%
2016
+1.1°F
−8
−17
+2%
2017
±0.0°F
+1
+11
−3%
2018
−0.4°F
−7
−11
−3%
2019
−1.6°F
+0
+13
+2%
2020
±0.0°F
−6
+4
+7%
2021
+1.6°F
+22
−4
+7%
2022
+0.2°F
+11
−7
+2%
2023
+2.0°F
+4
−23
−3%
2024
+3.1°F
+12
−10
+2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Missoula, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Missoula?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F
94±1.7 mph
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
89
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F
90±3.2 mph
9597% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±5°50° to 55°
±12%8% to 20% chance
Tomorrow
±5°50° to 55°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon
±5°52° to 56°
±15%25% to 40% chance
Tue
±10°45° to 55°
±16%49% to 65% chance
Wed
±6°47° to 52°
±8%24% to 32% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Missoula
today, local time
Sunrise
08:07
Sunset
18:32
Daylight
10h 25m
Common questions
What's the weather in Missoula today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Missoula's high today between 50° and 55°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 53°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Missoula today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Missoula on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 20%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Missoula?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Missoula (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Missoula?
July is typically the warmest month in Missoula, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Missoula get?
The coldest month in Missoula is January, when overnight lows average about 13°F.
How much rain does Missoula get?
Missoula sees roughly 15 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Missoula getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Missoula, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 1.1°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
