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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Kalispell weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Kalispell's high today between 49° and 55°, a 6° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 54°, with a 2% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

52°32°
54°31°
49°30°
49°34°
48°33°
46°30°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±10°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
29°
Partly cloudy
Feels 24° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
35°
Mainly clear
Feels 31° · Wind 1 mph · Humidity 88%
EuropeanECMWF
36°
Clear
Feels 32° · Wind 1 mph · Humidity 85%

Latest for Kalispell: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 29° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 35° Mainly clear · European (ECMWF): 36° Clear.

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Kalispell weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Kalispell…

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Kalispell and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kalispell hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kalispell 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
52° 32°
±6°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
54° 31°
±10°
Mon
Partly cloudy
49° 30°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
49° 34°
±4°
Wed
Light snow
48° 33°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
46° 30°
±7°
Fri
Light snow
46° 28°
models agree
Sat
Light snow
46° 26°
±4°
Sun
Partly cloudy
45° 28°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
47° 29°
±8°
Tue
Cloudy
48° 30°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
49° 32°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
49° 35°
models agree

Kalispell is a small town of about 22,000 people in Montana (MT), sitting at 48.2°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Kalispell with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Evergreen, Columbia Falls, Whitefish.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

How Kalispell's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.4°F

Around Kalispell, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +1.4°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average1996: −3.1°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2000: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2002: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2003: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2004: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2005: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2006: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2008: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2009: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2011: −1.9°F vs the 30-year average2012: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2013: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2014: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2015: +2.8°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2017: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2018: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2019: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2020: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2021: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.4°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.6°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 86°F

5 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −14 vs the 30-year average1996: −7 vs the 30-year average1997: −13 vs the 30-year average1998: +10 vs the 30-year average1999: −7 vs the 30-year average2000: −3 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: −5 vs the 30-year average2003: +23 vs the 30-year average2004: +0 vs the 30-year average2005: −2 vs the 30-year average2006: +2 vs the 30-year average2007: +6 vs the 30-year average2008: −6 vs the 30-year average2009: −5 vs the 30-year average2010: −14 vs the 30-year average2011: −8 vs the 30-year average2012: −2 vs the 30-year average2013: +1 vs the 30-year average2014: −8 vs the 30-year average2015: +6 vs the 30-year average2016: −7 vs the 30-year average2017: +8 vs the 30-year average2018: −6 vs the 30-year average2019: −4 vs the 30-year average2020: −1 vs the 30-year average2021: +19 vs the 30-year average2022: +9 vs the 30-year average2023: +5 vs the 30-year average2024: +14 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

11 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +6 vs the 30-year average1996: +16 vs the 30-year average1997: +3 vs the 30-year average1998: −12 vs the 30-year average1999: +5 vs the 30-year average2000: +10 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: +18 vs the 30-year average2003: −2 vs the 30-year average2004: −7 vs the 30-year average2005: −7 vs the 30-year average2006: −5 vs the 30-year average2007: +0 vs the 30-year average2008: +14 vs the 30-year average2009: +20 vs the 30-year average2010: +4 vs the 30-year average2011: +6 vs the 30-year average2012: +2 vs the 30-year average2013: +8 vs the 30-year average2014: −14 vs the 30-year average2015: −24 vs the 30-year average2016: −34 vs the 30-year average2017: +4 vs the 30-year average2018: −5 vs the 30-year average2019: +13 vs the 30-year average2020: +3 vs the 30-year average2021: −6 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: −10 vs the 30-year average2024: −11 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: −4% vs the 30-year average1999: +6% vs the 30-year average2000: −4% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: −4% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +1% vs the 30-year average2009: −4% vs the 30-year average2010: −4% vs the 30-year average2011: +1% vs the 30-year average2012: +6% vs the 30-year average2013: −4% vs the 30-year average2014: +1% vs the 30-year average2015: −4% vs the 30-year average2016: +1% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: +11% vs the 30-year average2021: +6% vs the 30-year average2022: +1% vs the 30-year average2023: −4% vs the 30-year average2024: +1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >86°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.6°F−14+6+1%
1996−3.1°F−7+16+1%
1997−1.5°F−13+3−4%
1998+1.7°F+10−12−4%
1999−0.1°F−7+5+6%
2000−1.3°F−3+10−4%
2001+0.3°F+2+2+1%
2002−1.0°F−5+18+1%
2003+1.7°F+23−2+1%
2004+0.6°F+0−7−4%
2005+0.1°F−2−7+1%
2006+1.0°F+2−5+1%
2007+0.6°F+6+0+1%
2008−2.2°F−6+14+1%
2009−2.2°F−5+20−4%
2010−1.5°F−14+4−4%
2011−1.9°F−8+6+1%
2012+0.5°F−2+2+6%
2013−0.6°F+1+8−4%
2014−0.8°F−8−14+1%
2015+2.8°F+6−24−4%
2016+1.2°F−7−34+1%
2017−0.3°F+8+4+1%
2018−0.1°F−6−5+1%
2019−1.5°F−4+13+1%
2020+0.8°F−1+3+11%
2021+2.1°F+19−6+6%
2022+0.1°F+9+1+1%
2023+2.4°F+5−10−4%
2024+2.6°F+14−11+1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kalispell, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°49° to 55°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±10°49° to 59°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°48° to 50°±1%17% to 18% chance
Tue±4°47° to 51°±15%28% to 43% chance
Wed±6°44° to 50°±10%35% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kalispell

today, local time
Sunrise
08:10
Sunset
18:31
Daylight
10h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kalispell today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Kalispell's high today between 49° and 55°, a 6° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 54°, with a 2% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kalispell today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Kalispell on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 2%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kalispell?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Kalispell forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
Is Kalispell getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Kalispell, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 1.4°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

EvergreenColumbia FallsWhitefishMissoulaOrchard HomesSandpointHaydenCoeur d'Alene

More US weather

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?US rain radarNWS vs American vs European: models comparedHow we measure forecast accuracyHow accurate is a 7-day forecast?Montana weather todayAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadEmbed Kalispell on your siteThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS