Skip to main content
Every US forecast, compared
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USMiddletown
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Middletown weather

Loading live data…

Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 79° in Middletown today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 75°, with a 62% chance of rain.

79°68°
75°64°
79°62°
82°62°
86°67°
87°72°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Light drizzle
Today 80°·Low 68°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Light drizzle
Today 80°·Low 68°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
78°
Light drizzle
Today 78°·Low 69°·Rain 14%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Middletown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
79° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
75° 64°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
79° 62°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
82° 62°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
86° 67°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
87° 72°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
81° 67°
±9°
Sat
Mostly clear
79° 66°
models agree
Sun
Partly cloudy
82° 68°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
85° 70°
±14°
Tue
Drizzle
81° 67°
±23°
Wed
Light drizzle
75° 64°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
73° 63°
models agree
Fri
Showers
71° 61°
±7°

Middletown, NJ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 31°F), with roughly 49 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Middletown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Middletown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
45°
33°
Feb
47°
31°
Mar
52°
36°
Apr
63°
45°
May
71°
53°
Jun
81°
63°
Jul
87°
70°
Aug
82°
67°
Sep
76°
62°
Oct
68°
52°
Nov
55°
41°
Dec
46°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Middletown?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
82±1.8°F94±1.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
66
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F94±1.8 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°78° to 80°±9%5% to 14% chance
Tomorrow±3°74° to 77°±46%16% to 62% chance
Mon±2°77° to 79°models agree1% to 1% chance
Tue±1°82° to 82°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°85° to 88°±10%2% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Middletown

today, local time
Sunrise
06:27
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 55m

Common questions

What's the weather in Middletown today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Middletown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Middletown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Middletown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Middletown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Middletown (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 66. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Middletown?
July is typically the warmest month in Middletown, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Middletown get?
The coldest month in Middletown is February, when overnight lows average about 31°F.
How much rain does Middletown get?
Middletown sees roughly 49 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather