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McMinnville weather

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McMinnville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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McMinnville weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

McMinnville swings 51°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 34°F lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 55 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 85 days a year at 77°F or above, 35 of them at 86°F or above, 40 frost nights, and rain on 135 days.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
January
34°F average low
Wettest month
December
55 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
34,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
85 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
40 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
135 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for McMinnville’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around McMinnville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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McMinnville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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McMinnville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

McMinnville, Oregon (OR) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 34°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for McMinnville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

McMinnville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
45°
34°
Feb
49°
35°
Mar
54°
38°
Apr
58°
41°
May
68°
45°
Jun
75°
49°
Jul
85°
54°
Aug
83°
55°
Sep
75°
52°
Oct
62°
44°
Nov
51°
40°
Dec
45°
34°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around McMinnville has changed since 1995

McMinnville sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Salem. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Salem page.

Which forecast is most accurate in McMinnville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F94±1.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F95±1.5 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in McMinnville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for McMinnville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in McMinnville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for McMinnville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for McMinnville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for McMinnville (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in McMinnville?
July is typically the warmest month in McMinnville, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does McMinnville get?
The coldest month in McMinnville is January, when overnight lows average about 34°F.
How much rain does McMinnville get?
McMinnville sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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