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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Manassas weather

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Rain,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 81° in Manassas today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 83°, with a 3% chance of rain.

81°69°
83°63°
81°62°
85°61°
90°63°
93°71°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Rain
Today 82°·Low 70°·Rain 32%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Fog
Today 81°·Low 67°·Rain 32%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Light drizzle
Today 82°·Low 71°·Rain 82%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Manassas and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
81° 69°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
83° 63°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
81° 62°
±5°
Tue
Mostly clear
85° 61°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
90° 63°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
93° 71°
±10°
Fri
Partly cloudy
84° 68°
±9°
Sat
Mostly clear
86° 64°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
90° 68°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
90° 68°
±15°
Tue
Drizzle
83° 65°
±25°
Wed
Light drizzle
75° 63°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
76° 60°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
71° 60°
±15°

Manassas, VA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Manassas right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Manassas climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
32°
Feb
53°
34°
Mar
58°
37°
Apr
70°
48°
May
75°
54°
Jun
85°
62°
Jul
90°
69°
Aug
87°
67°
Sep
79°
61°
Oct
70°
50°
Nov
58°
40°
Dec
49°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Manassas?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F96±1.4 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°81° to 82°±50%32% to 82% chance
Tomorrow±1°82° to 83°±1%2% to 3% chance
Mon±5°79° to 84°±3%3% to 6% chance
Tue±2°84° to 86°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±5°87° to 93°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Manassas

today, local time
Sunrise
06:42
Sunset
19:34
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in Manassas today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Manassas today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Manassas today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Manassas and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Manassas?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Manassas (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Manassas?
July is typically the warmest month in Manassas, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Manassas get?
The coldest month in Manassas is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Manassas get?
Manassas sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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