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Magnolia weather

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Magnolia weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Magnolia…

Magnolia weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Magnolia swings 57°F across the year, from 94°F highs in August to 37°F lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 53 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
94°F average high
Coldest month
January
37°F average low
Wettest month
October
53 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
March, April and November
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Magnolia and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Magnolia hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Magnolia 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Magnolia, Arkansas (AR) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 94°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 53 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Magnolia right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Magnolia climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
55°
37°
Feb
59°
40°
Mar
66°
46°
Apr
74°
55°
May
81°
62°
Jun
90°
70°
Jul
92°
75°
Aug
94°
74°
Sep
86°
66°
Oct
77°
56°
Nov
65°
46°
Dec
57°
39°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Magnolia's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.0°F

Around Magnolia, 2015-2024 averaged 1.0°F warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average1996: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average1999: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2001: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2003: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2005: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2007: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2009: −2.0°F vs the 30-year average2010: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2011: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.8°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2014: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2015: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2018: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2019: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2020: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2021: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

no clear change

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +9 vs the 30-year average1996: −27 vs the 30-year average1997: +1 vs the 30-year average1998: +31 vs the 30-year average1999: +13 vs the 30-year average2000: +4 vs the 30-year average2001: −13 vs the 30-year average2002: +1 vs the 30-year average2003: −12 vs the 30-year average2004: −38 vs the 30-year average2005: +36 vs the 30-year average2006: +11 vs the 30-year average2007: −28 vs the 30-year average2008: −14 vs the 30-year average2009: −22 vs the 30-year average2010: +28 vs the 30-year average2011: +37 vs the 30-year average2012: +13 vs the 30-year average2013: +22 vs the 30-year average2014: −4 vs the 30-year average2015: +9 vs the 30-year average2016: −2 vs the 30-year average2017: −22 vs the 30-year average2018: +12 vs the 30-year average2019: +9 vs the 30-year average2020: −38 vs the 30-year average2021: −28 vs the 30-year average2022: +5 vs the 30-year average2023: +14 vs the 30-year average2024: +6 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

7 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5 vs the 30-year average1996: +7 vs the 30-year average1997: −1 vs the 30-year average1998: −17 vs the 30-year average1999: −9 vs the 30-year average2000: +11 vs the 30-year average2001: −9 vs the 30-year average2002: +7 vs the 30-year average2003: +16 vs the 30-year average2004: +0 vs the 30-year average2005: −10 vs the 30-year average2006: −7 vs the 30-year average2007: +2 vs the 30-year average2008: +13 vs the 30-year average2009: +7 vs the 30-year average2010: +17 vs the 30-year average2011: +2 vs the 30-year average2012: −12 vs the 30-year average2013: +14 vs the 30-year average2014: +15 vs the 30-year average2015: +4 vs the 30-year average2016: −12 vs the 30-year average2017: −14 vs the 30-year average2018: +4 vs the 30-year average2019: −9 vs the 30-year average2020: −17 vs the 30-year average2021: −5 vs the 30-year average2022: +16 vs the 30-year average2023: −13 vs the 30-year average2024: −10 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +5% vs the 30-year average1997: −6% vs the 30-year average1998: −1% vs the 30-year average1999: +5% vs the 30-year average2000: −1% vs the 30-year average2001: −6% vs the 30-year average2002: −1% vs the 30-year average2003: −1% vs the 30-year average2004: −1% vs the 30-year average2005: −1% vs the 30-year average2006: +5% vs the 30-year average2007: −6% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: −1% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: +5% vs the 30-year average2012: +5% vs the 30-year average2013: −1% vs the 30-year average2014: +5% vs the 30-year average2015: −1% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: −1% vs the 30-year average2019: −1% vs the 30-year average2020: −1% vs the 30-year average2021: −1% vs the 30-year average2022: −1% vs the 30-year average2023: −1% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995+0.1°F+9+5+5%
1996−1.5°F−27+7+5%
1997−1.8°F+1−1−6%
1998+1.6°F+31−17−1%
1999+1.2°F+13−9+5%
2000−0.2°F+4+11−1%
2001−0.9°F−13−9−6%
2002−0.8°F+1+7−1%
2003−0.8°F−12+16−1%
2004−0.8°F−38+0−1%
2005+1.0°F+36−10−1%
2006+0.9°F+11−7+5%
2007−0.2°F−28+2−6%
2008−1.5°F−14+13+5%
2009−2.0°F−22+7−1%
2010−0.2°F+28+17−1%
2011+1.4°F+37+2+5%
2012+1.8°F+13−12+5%
2013−1.1°F+22+14−1%
2014−2.2°F−4+15+5%
2015+0.9°F+9+4−1%
2016+1.2°F−2−12−1%
2017+1.4°F−22−14−1%
2018±0.0°F+12+4−1%
2019+0.3°F+9−9−1%
2020−0.9°F−38−17−1%
2021−0.2°F−28−5−1%
2022+0.1°F+5+16−1%
2023+1.4°F+14−13−1%
2024+2.1°F+6−10−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Magnolia, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Magnolia today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Magnolia today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Magnolia today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Magnolia and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Magnolia?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Magnolia forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Magnolia?
August is typically the warmest month in Magnolia, with average highs around 94°F.
How cold does Magnolia get?
The coldest month in Magnolia is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does Magnolia get?
Magnolia sees roughly 53 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Magnolia getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Magnolia, 2015-2024 averaged 1.0°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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