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CheckWeather USLawrence
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Lawrence weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 100° in Lawrence today. Tomorrow looks showers around 99°, with a 41% chance of rain.

100°74°
99°76°
98°74°
103°79°
93°75°
89°69°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±11°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±16°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Partly cloudy
Today 99°·Low 74°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
102°
Cloudy
Today 102°·Low 71°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Cloudy
Today 100°·Low 78°·Rain 2%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lawrence and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
100° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
99° 76°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
98° 74°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
103° 79°
±11°
Wed
Light drizzle
93° 75°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
89° 69°
±16°
Fri
Light drizzle
90° 68°
±11°
Sat
Drizzle
94° 72°
±10°
Sun
Drizzle
88° 66°
±21°
Mon
Light drizzle
73° 58°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
77° 55°
±11°
Wed
Clear
79° 54°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
80° 57°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
83° 59°
models agree

Lawrence, KS is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 23°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lawrence right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lawrence climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
39°
23°
Feb
53°
30°
Mar
57°
37°
Apr
69°
47°
May
78°
57°
Jun
87°
67°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
89°
70°
Sep
84°
62°
Oct
72°
52°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
47°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lawrence?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F98±0.8 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F94±1.9 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°99° to 102°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±4°97° to 100°±17%24% to 41% chance
Mon±2°97° to 99°models agree16% to 16% chance
Tue±11°99° to 110°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°91° to 95°±1%47% to 48% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lawrence

today, local time
Sunrise
06:53
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lawrence today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lawrence today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lawrence today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lawrence and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lawrence?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lawrence (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lawrence?
July is typically the warmest month in Lawrence, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Lawrence get?
The coldest month in Lawrence is January, when overnight lows average about 23°F.
How much rain does Lawrence get?
Lawrence sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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