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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Lawrence weather

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Mostly clear,warmer tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Lawrence today. Tomorrow: clear, around 65°, with a 0% chance of rain.

59°32°
65°35°
68°40°
54°37°
52°32°
62°38°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
58°
Mostly clear
Today 58°·Low 30°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
60°
Cloudy
Today 60°·Low 32°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
59°
Clear
Today 59°·Low 34°·Rain 0%
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Lawrence weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Lawrence…

Lawrence weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Lawrence swings 61°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 20°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 47 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 81 days a year at 77°F or above, 26 of them at 86°F or above, 110 frost nights, and rain on 123 days.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
February
20°F average low
Wettest month
March
47 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
80,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
81 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
110 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
123 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Lawrence’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lawrence and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lawrence hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lawrence 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
59° 32°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
65° 35°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
68° 40°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
54° 37°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
52° 32°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
62° 38°
±4°
Fri
Mostly clear
66° 46°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
59° 42°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
59° 42°
±11°
Mon
Drizzle
61° 44°
±15°
Tue
Light drizzle
64° 46°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
51° 38°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
54° 36°
models agree

Lawrence, Massachusetts (MA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 20°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lawrence right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lawrence climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
34°
21°
Feb
38°
20°
Mar
44°
28°
Apr
56°
37°
May
67°
47°
Jun
75°
57°
Jul
81°
65°
Aug
80°
64°
Sep
72°
56°
Oct
61°
44°
Nov
49°
34°
Dec
39°
26°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Lawrence has changed since 1995

Lawrence sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Boston. That square ran 1.6°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Boston page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Lawrence?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
92
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.5 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°58° to 60°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°64° to 66°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°68° to 70°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°52° to 55°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±3°50° to 53°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lawrence

today, local time
Sunrise
07:08
Sunset
17:48
Daylight
10h 40m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lawrence today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Lawrence today. Tomorrow: clear, around 65°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Lawrence today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Lawrence on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lawrence?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lawrence (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lawrence?
July is typically the warmest month in Lawrence, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Lawrence get?
The coldest month in Lawrence is February, when overnight lows average about 20°F.
How much rain does Lawrence get?
Lawrence sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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