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CheckWeather USLawrence
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Lawrence weather

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Showers,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 90° in Lawrence today. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 79°, with a 3% chance of rain.

90°71°
79°65°
81°60°
89°65°
92°73°
79°68°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
90°
Showers
Today 90°·Low 74°·Rain 25%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Partly cloudy
Today 92°·Low 70°·Rain 25%
EuropeanECMWF
88°
Thunderstorm
Today 88°·Low 70°·Rain 76%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lawrence and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
90° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
79° 65°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
81° 60°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
89° 65°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
92° 73°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
79° 68°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
81° 61°
±13°
Sat
Mostly clear
83° 64°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
88° 69°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
81° 64°
±22°
Tue
Light drizzle
73° 58°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
70° 53°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
72° 52°
models agree
Fri
Clear
72° 53°
models agree

Lawrence, IN is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 27°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lawrence right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lawrence climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
39°
27°
Feb
49°
30°
Mar
53°
35°
Apr
64°
44°
May
74°
55°
Jun
82°
62°
Jul
84°
66°
Aug
83°
64°
Sep
79°
60°
Oct
67°
48°
Nov
54°
38°
Dec
44°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lawrence?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F97±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F96±1.3 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°88° to 92°±51%25% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±2°79° to 80°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±2°80° to 82°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°88° to 89°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°91° to 94°±8%14% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lawrence

today, local time
Sunrise
07:16
Sunset
20:09
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lawrence today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lawrence today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lawrence today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lawrence and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lawrence?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lawrence (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lawrence?
July is typically the warmest month in Lawrence, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Lawrence get?
The coldest month in Lawrence is January, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does Lawrence get?
Lawrence sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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